Match Analysis: Georgia State Panthers vs South Alabama Jaguars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-23
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Game Overview
Both South Alabama Jaguars and Georgia State Panthers enter this Sun Belt conference matchup with identical 1-6 records, struggling offensively and defensively. South Alabama is favored by 6.5 points at home, with the total set around 55.5 points. Recent form shows both teams losing their last games, with South Alabama's defense ranking poorly against the run and Georgia State showing stronger overall defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Alabama has a run-heavy offense averaging nearly 199 rushing yards per game but ranks low in pass offense and allows high rushing yards defensively. Georgia State allows fewer points and better pass defense but has struggled to score consistently. Both teams have just one cover against the spread this season.
- Limited recent data but generally evenly matched teams with similar season trajectories. No direct recent H2H results to decisively favor either side.
- No significant injury reports available for either team, suggesting both have their standard rosters available for this matchup.
- Game is at Georgia Stateβs home stadium, Center Parc Stadium, which should provide some home-field advantage. Weather and other external details are currently not a factor.
- Both teams are 1-6 and winless in conference play, highly motivated to break the losing streak. South Alabama slightly more driven as favorites to assert control in the Sun Belt East, but Georgia State will fight hard at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama -238, Georgia State +195 | South Alabama Jaguars | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | South Alabama -6.5 -110, Georgia State +6.5 -110 | South Alabama Jaguars -6.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 55.5 -112, Under 55.5 -108 | Under 55.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers -12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 55.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 55.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
South Alabama Jaguars moneyline win, covering the 6.5 point spread, and under 55.5 total points
Predicted Score: South Alabama Jaguars 27 – Georgia State Panthers 17