Match Analysis: Geoffrey Neal vs Carlos Prates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 3:15 AM UTC
- Location: United Center, Chicago
Game Overview
This welterweight fight features Geoffrey Neal (16-6) versus Carlos Prates (21-7) at UFC 319. Neal is a powerful, durable southpaw with a high volume striking rate and solid finishing ability. Prates is a longer reach, switch-hitter with slightly better strike accuracy and defense. Both fighters have susceptibility to damage, creating a high likelihood of an incomplete fight going under the total rounds.
Key Factors to Consider
- Neal lands significantly more strikes per minute (5.05) but also absorbs more (5.44), while Prates lands at a slightly lower rate (3.60) but defends fewer strikes.
- No direct H2H records are available, but styles suggest Prates' reach and finishing instincts give him a tactical edge.
- Neal has some recent injury concerns that may impair his defense and durability in early aggressive phases.
- Bout held in Chicago's United Center with no major travel or environmental issues affecting either fighter.
- Prates, at 31, is in prime form seeking to capitalize on his physical advantages, while Neal (34) looks to prove resilience despite injury setbacks.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Prates -245 / Neal +200 | Carlos Prates | ★★★★☆ 76% |
| Spread | Prates -3.5 -165 / Neal +3.5 120 | Carlos Prates -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 +120 / Under 2.5 -154 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carlos Prates -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Carlos Prates to win by stoppage under 2.5 rounds
Predicted Score: Carlos Prates wins via TKO 2nd round