Match Analysis: Geno Morelli vs Austin Wourms – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-02
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Westworld Scottsdale – Equidome
Game Overview
Austin Wourms (7-5-0 record) faces undefeated prospect Geno Morelli (4-0-0) in a welterweight bout at UFL 6. The match is part of the Team Scottsdale vs. Team Orange County event, scheduled for 3 rounds[3][4][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Geno Morelli maintains a flawless professional record (4-0-0), indicating superior consistency and technical prowess compared to Wourms' 7-5-0 record[4][5]. Wourms' recent performance history shows vulnerability (losses in 5 professional bouts), while Morelli has never been defeated in sanctioned competition[3][4].
- No prior meeting between fighters[1][3][4]
- No injury reports available
- UFL 6 represents a team-based event format, potentially adding psychological pressure for both fighters to perform for their respective squads (Team Scottsdale vs. Team Orange County)[3][5].
- Morelli seeks to preserve his undefeated status and rising prospect status. Wourms aims to rebound from a .500 career record and potential gatekeeper status[4][5].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Austin Wourms +225 / Geno Morelli -350 | Geno Morelli | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Geno Morelli -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Geno Morelli at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Geno Morelli by decision (confidence 75%) – Likely outcome based on technical superiority and undefeated record. Wourms' experience may push fight beyond 1.5 rounds, but Morelli's cleaner record suggests consistent scoring across three rounds[3][4][5].
Predicted Score: Geno Morelli via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)