Match Analysis: Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
Gabriella Fernandes and Julija Stoliarenko face off in a Women's Flyweight prelim match at UFC Vegas 109. Fernandes holds a record of 10-3 with a southpaw stance and a 66" reach, while Stoliarenko stands 5'7" with an orthodox style and the same 66" reach. Fernandes is the favored fighter with more precise striking and stronger defensive metrics.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fernandes averages 3.46 significant strikes per minute with a 46% accuracy and defends 49% of strikes against her. Stoliarenko lands fewer strikes at 2.49 per minute with 39% accuracy and defends 46%. Fernandes shows better striking volume and efficiency, whereas Stoliarenko has a higher strike defense absorption rate.
- No previous fights recorded between Fernandes and Stoliarenko, making this their first encounter.
- No publicly reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight is held at the UFC Apex with standard conditions. Fernandes fights in her home promotion environment in Las Vegas, which could provide slight comfort advantage.
- Fernandes seeks to improve her UFC record (currently 2-2) and climb the Flyweight rankings. Stoliarenko, with a UFC record of 2-6, aims to regain momentum and stabilize her standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gabriella Fernandes: -400, Julija Stoliarenko: +300 | Gabriella Fernandes | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: +145, Under 2.5: -175 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gabriella Fernandes 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Gabriella Fernandes at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Gabriella Fernandes is predicted to win the match, with a strong advantage in striking skills and defense, and the betting markets heavily favoring her.
Predicted Score: Gabriella Fernandes to win by TKO or unanimous decision within 3 rounds