Match Analysis: Gabriel Green vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-17
- Time: 11:15 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
This UFC Welterweight prelims bout features Gabriel Green versus promotional newcomer Matheus Camilo. Green, a more experienced UFC fighter with an 11-5 (2-3 UFC) record, faces Camilo, a younger prospect at 24 years old who enters the UFC with a 9-2 overall record and has demonstrated finishing ability with four wins by (T)KO and two by submission. The match is expected to test Camilo's potential at a high level as he seeks to establish his UFC career, while Green looks to maintain his standing in the division.
Key Factors to Consider
- Gabriel Green has UFC experience and a balanced skillset but has been inconsistent lately with a UFC record of 2-3. Matheus Camilo is less experienced in UFC but has a strong finishing rate and an upward trajectory as a young fighter with diverse finishing methods on feet and ground.
- This will be their first career matchup, with no previous head-to-head fights or results available.
- No known injuries have been reported for either fighter leading into this matchup.
- The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar setting for Green, potentially giving him a slight home advantage in terms of environment. Camilo has momentum after recently signing the UFC contract via Dana White's 'Lookin' For a Fight' series.
- Camilo is highly motivated to solidify his UFC spot and make a strong impression in his promotional debut, while Green will aim to leverage his experience to secure a win and stay relevant in the division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gabriel Green: +190, Matheus Camilo: -230 | Matheus Camilo | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Gabriel Green +3.5: +110, Matheus Camilo -3.5: -150 | Matheus Camilo -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: +120, Under 2.5 rounds: -154 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Matheus Camilo -12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
While Gabriel Green's UFC experience and environment familiarity give him an edge, Matheus Camilo's finishing capability and youth present a high-risk, high-reward challenge. The prediction leans slightly towards Matheus Camilo pulling off an upset due to his finishing ability and momentum.
Predicted Score: Matheus Camilo wins by TKO in Round 2