Match Analysis: Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 2:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Gabriel Bonfim (18-1-0) faces Randy Brown (20-6-0) in a welterweight main event at UFC Vegas 111. Bonfim is a rising submission threat with elite grappling, while Brown is a veteran with strong striking and cardio. Bonfim is favored by bookmakers, but Brown’s experience and reach could make this competitive.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bonfim has won 10 straight, including a split decision over Stephen in his last outing. Brown has gone 3-2 in his last five, with losses to top-tier competition. Bonfim’s recent form is superior, but Brown’s losses came against higher-ranked fighters.
• No previous meetings between Bonfim and Brown.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Bonfim is 35, Brown is 28. Bonfim has a reach disadvantage (72.5” vs 78”), but higher takedown and submission averages. Brown has a slight edge in striking accuracy and volume.
• Bonfim is on a long win streak and looking to solidify his status as a top welterweight. Brown is motivated to rebound after recent losses and prove he still belongs in the upper tier.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -170, away: 142	Gabriel Bonfim	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	home: -13.5, away: 13.5	Gabriel Bonfim -13.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over: -135, under: 105	Over 2.5	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Gabriel Bonfim -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gabriel Bonfim wins by submission in the second round.

Predicted Score: Gabriel Bonfim defeats Randy Brown via submission (rear-naked choke) at 3:12 of Round 2

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Josh Hokit vs. Max Gimenis Prediction	Josh Hokit Win	-425	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Jackson McVey vs. Zachary Reese Prediction	Zachary Reese Win	-300	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown Prediction	Gabriel Bonfim Win	-170	★★★★☆ 74% (74%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +162

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $52.32

Match Analysis: Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-12
• Time: 3:15 AM UTC
• Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Game Overview

Stephen Thompson, a seasoned welterweight veteran and former title challenger, faces rising prospect Gabriel Bonfim. Thompson brings experience and a resilient fighting style, while Bonfim is an aggressive young contender with momentum but one recent loss.

Key Factors to Consider

• Thompson (17-8-1) is coming off two straight losses but historically rebounds well after losing streaks. Bonfim (17-1) is a powerful striker with high output and finishing ability, recently bouncing back after a loss with two wins.
• No prior matchups between Thompson and Bonfim; styles contrast with Thompson’s karate-based striking and Bonfim’s high-pressure striking.
• No current injury reports for either fighter; both appear fully healthy for this bout.
• Fight held at UFC Nashville, neutral site with no apparent advantage; Thompson is the older fighter at 42 versus 27 for Bonfim.
• Thompson motivated to avoid a third straight loss and extend career legacy, while Bonfim motivated to break into welterweight top 15 with a high-profile win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gabriel Bonfim: -425, Stephen Thompson: +330	Gabriel Bonfim	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Gabriel Bonfim: -3.5 -205, Stephen Thompson: +3.5 +150	Gabriel Bonfim -3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -105, Under 2.5 rounds: -125	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Gabriel Bonfim -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gabriel Bonfim to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Gabriel Bonfim wins by decision or late round finish in 4th round