Match Analysis: Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-12
- Time: 3:15 AM UTC
- Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Game Overview
Stephen Thompson, a seasoned welterweight veteran and former title challenger, faces rising prospect Gabriel Bonfim. Thompson brings experience and a resilient fighting style, while Bonfim is an aggressive young contender with momentum but one recent loss.
Key Factors to Consider
- Thompson (17-8-1) is coming off two straight losses but historically rebounds well after losing streaks. Bonfim (17-1) is a powerful striker with high output and finishing ability, recently bouncing back after a loss with two wins.
- No prior matchups between Thompson and Bonfim; styles contrast with Thompson’s karate-based striking and Bonfim’s high-pressure striking.
- No current injury reports for either fighter; both appear fully healthy for this bout.
- Fight held at UFC Nashville, neutral site with no apparent advantage; Thompson is the older fighter at 42 versus 27 for Bonfim.
- Thompson motivated to avoid a third straight loss and extend career legacy, while Bonfim motivated to break into welterweight top 15 with a high-profile win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gabriel Bonfim: -425, Stephen Thompson: +330 | Gabriel Bonfim | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Gabriel Bonfim: -3.5 -205, Stephen Thompson: +3.5 +150 | Gabriel Bonfim -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -105, Under 2.5 rounds: -125 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gabriel Bonfim -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Gabriel Bonfim to win via moneyline
Predicted Score: Gabriel Bonfim wins by decision or late round finish in 4th round