Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Gabriel Alves Braga – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-12
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, Tennessee

Game Overview

Featherweight semifinal match for the 2025 PFL World Tournament. Jesus Pinedo (age 28, record 25-6-1, reigning 2023 PFL champ) faces Gabriel Alves Braga (age 26/27, record 17-2). This is their third meeting; previous bouts were split 1-1, with Braga winning a split decision in April 2023 and Pinedo winning by third-round TKO in November 2023 en route to his championship. Both have shown strong recent form, dispatching recent opponents quickly[1][4][5].

Key Factors to Consider

• Pinedo is the more experienced and credentialed fighter (2023 PFL champion), with 25 wins, 15 by KO/TKO, strong striking, and a proven ability to finish fights. Braga is a rising contender with 17 wins (7 by KO/TKO), solid grappling, and a recent record of quick finishes[4]. Both have shown resilience and adaptability.
• Direct record is 1-1: Braga won a split decision in April 2023, Pinedo won by third-round TKO in November 2023 for the title[1][4]. Both have competitive styles; Pinedo has the edge in KO power, while Braga has shown strong grappling and decision victories.
• No public reports of significant injuries affecting either fighter.
• Fight is at featherweight (145 lbs), both made weight comfortably. Event is a semifinal for a prestigious PFL tournament, increasing pressure and stakes[3][5].
• High—winner advances to the PFL featherweight finals and a possible $1 million prize. Both fighters have proven to rise to the occasion in high-stakes bouts.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -215, away: 175	Jesus Pinedo	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jesus Pinedo at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jesus Pinedo is favored due to championship experience, proven KO power, and a slight edge in recent head-to-head, but Gabriel Alves Braga is a live underdog with excellent grappling and versatility. Expect a closely contested fight with Pinedo’s power and experience likely to be decisive.

Predicted Score: Jesus Pinedo wins by KO/TKO in rounds 2 or 3

Match Analysis: Gabriel Alves Braga vs Frederik Dupras – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-04
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Universal Studios Florida, Orlando, Florida

Game Overview

The fight between Gabriel Alves Braga and Frederik Dupras is a Featherweight bout in the PFL 2025 World Tournament.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters' previous performances in their respective careers would influence this match, including any recent wins, losses, and the manner in which those outcomes occurred.
• There is no specific head-to-head data provided for this matchup.
• Any recent injuries or health issues affecting either fighter could significantly impact their performance.
• External factors such as crowd support and fighter strategies could also influence the outcome.
• Motivation to win in a tournament setting is high for both fighters.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Predicted Outcome

Based on general MMA strategies and given no specific data, a decisive victory for the fighter with stronger conditioning and a well-rounded skill set seems likely.

Predicted Score: Decision win or early-round finish depending on each fighter's skillset

Match Analysis: Gabriel Alves Braga vs Yves Landu – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-03
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

Gabriel Alves Braga is favored in this MMA matchup against Yves Landu, with a notable differential in age and recent performance records.

Key Factors to Consider

• Gabriel Alves Braga holds a strong record of 15 wins with 7 KO/TKO victories, while Yves Landu has 21 wins with 4 KO/TKO victories. Braga's younger age and recent activity might give him an edge.
• There is no previous head-to-head data available for these fighters, so this matchup is a first encounter between them.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The age difference (Braga is 26, Landu is 38) and weight (Braga at 65 kg vs. Landu at 66 kg) could impact Landu's stamina and agility.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to advance in the tournament, but Braga's recent form and youth might provide an added drive.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-550 for Gabriel Alves Braga, +350 for Yves Landu	Gabriel Alves Braga	★★★★☆ 85%

Predicted Outcome

Gabriel Alves Braga to win.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA matches