Match Analysis: Southampton vs Fulham – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-26
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: St Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Game Overview
Southampton will host Fulham at St Mary's Stadium in a Premier League clash. Both teams have a closely matched history with Southampton slightly ahead in head-to-head wins. Recent form shows Fulham with a better recent performance, while Southampton has struggled defensively in recent games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Southampton's recent form includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per match. Fulham has won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per match, showing a slightly stronger recent form offensively but similar defensive vulnerability.
- Over 21 matches since 2001, Southampton won 7 games, Fulham won 6, and 8 ended in draws, showing a balanced rivalry. Average goals per match in these encounters is about 2.5, with a fairly even spread of results. Southampton covers Asian handicaps about 50% of the time historically.
- Specific current injury data for the match is not provided in the search results, so the impact of injuries cannot be decisively assessed.
- The match is played at Southampton's home ground, St Mary's Stadium, which could provide home advantage. No other external factors such as weather or scheduling issues are indicated.
- Fulham appears motivated with a recent upswing in form and better away performances, while Southampton's motivation could be tempered by recent defensive struggles and less consistent results.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fulham: -157, Southampton: 380, Draw: 295 | Fulham win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Fulham: -0.5 -160, Southampton: +50 120 | Fulham -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -145, Under 2.5: 109 | Over 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fulham -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 -9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fulham at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fulham is favored to win given their recent better form and superior current odds. The match is expected to be competitive, possibly with goals scored on both sides, but Fulham's momentum and betting market confidence suggest they will edge the victory.
Predicted Score: Fulham 2 – 1 Southampton