Match Analysis: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: MEWA Arena, Mainz, Germany
Game Overview
Borussia Dortmund, currently 2nd in the Bundesliga, face FSV Mainz 05 who sit 13th, at Mainzβs home ground. Dortmund have a strong start to the season with 3 wins and 1 draw; Mainzβs form is inconsistent. Dortmundβs offense is more potent, and Mainz has struggled defensively at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dortmund hold a 3-1-0 record with a potent attack and solid away form; Mainz have a 1-1-2 record, conceding 4 goals in 4 matches and failing to keep a clean sheet this season.
- Recent encounters show Dortmund winning the last match 3-1 in March 2025 after losing two previous trips to Mainz, indicating Dortmund have the edge but matches have been competitive.
- No major injuries reported for either side at present; Dortmundβs squad appears healthier and more stable. Mainzβs offensive key players are currently available.
- Playing at MEWA Arena provides Mainz home advantage, but crowd support and stadium factors appear insufficient to offset Dortmundβs quality edge.
- Dortmund are motivated to consolidate a top league position aiming for the title chase; Mainz are motivated to climb the table and avoid relegation struggles but have struggled against top teams.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: +225, away: +107, draw: +275 | Borussia Dortmund | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Borussia Dortmund -0.25: -122, FSV Mainz 05 +25: +102 | Borussia Dortmund -0.25 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | over 3: -110, under 3: -110 | Under 3 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Borussia Dortmund 14% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Borussia Dortmund to win
Predicted Score: Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 FSV Mainz 05