Match Analysis: Nathan Kelly vs Frederik Dupras – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ

Game Overview

The featherweight bout between Nathan Kelly and Frederik Dupras is scheduled as part of the prelims for the 2025 PFL World Tournament 8: Finals event. Nathan Kelly enters with an 11-4 record and a balanced skill set combining 4 KO/TKO wins and 5 submission wins. Frederik Dupras holds an 8-2 record with a dominant submission skill set, boasting 8 submission wins and no KO wins. The fight is expected to last the regular 3 rounds and will showcase a classic striker vs. grappler style matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nathan Kelly has a slightly better overall record (11-4 vs 8-2) but has lost more fights. He wins via KO/TKO (4) and submissions (5) indicating versatility. Frederik Dupras is undefeated in submissions (8) and has better submission finishing rates but no KO wins, suggesting a grappling-dominant style.
• No recorded previous encounter between Nathan Kelly and Frederik Dupras, making this fight their first head-to-head meeting. Styles make the fight a striking vs grappling clash based on finishing type statistics.
• No reported injuries or medical issues for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The bout takes place in the notable Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall during a high-profile PFL Finals event attended by strong audience and media coverage, potentially increasing pressure. Both fighters will aim to capitalize on the exposure.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, aiming to prove themselves on a major stage in the PFL Finals event, with Kelly possibly looking to reclaim dominance after 4 losses, and Dupras to build momentum with his grappling prowess.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Frederik_Dupras: +125, Nathan_Kelly: -150	Nathan Kelly by decision or late rounds, Dupras by early submission	Kelly 55%, Dupras 45%
Spread	Kelly: -1.5, Dupras: +1.5	Kelly to win by more than 1.5 rounds or by points	★★★☆☆ 53%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds given submission potential	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Nathan Kelly -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Nathan Kelly at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the data, Frederik Dupras is favored due to his superior finishing rate by submission and an undefeated submission record, despite Kelly's more extensive experience. The fight likely ends by submission within 3 rounds favoring Dupras.

Predicted Score: Kelly 29-28 by judges if it goes decision; otherwise, Dupras submission win round 2

Match Analysis: Gabriel Alves Braga vs Frederik Dupras – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-04
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Universal Studios Florida, Orlando, Florida

Game Overview

The fight between Gabriel Alves Braga and Frederik Dupras is a Featherweight bout in the PFL 2025 World Tournament.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters' previous performances in their respective careers would influence this match, including any recent wins, losses, and the manner in which those outcomes occurred.
• There is no specific head-to-head data provided for this matchup.
• Any recent injuries or health issues affecting either fighter could significantly impact their performance.
• External factors such as crowd support and fighter strategies could also influence the outcome.
• Motivation to win in a tournament setting is high for both fighters.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Predicted Outcome

Based on general MMA strategies and given no specific data, a decisive victory for the fighter with stronger conditioning and a well-rounded skill set seems likely.

Predicted Score: Decision win or early-round finish depending on each fighter's skillset

Match Analysis: Frederik Dupras vs Nathan Ghareeb – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 3, 2025
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not Available

Game Overview

Frederik Dupras and Nathan Ghareeb face off in an anticipated featherweight bout. Dupras holds an 8-1 record, while Ghareeb boasts a 10-3 record, showcasing a slight advantage in experience.

Key Factors to Consider

• Frederik Dupras has a strong submission record with 8 wins by submission. Nathan Ghareeb has a more balanced approach with 7 KO/TKO wins and a slight edge in overall victories.
• There is no available head-to-head history between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Venue and crowd factors are not detailed in the available information.
• Both fighters are likely highly motivated to secure a win given the competitive stakes.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-105 for Frederik Dupras, -115 for Nathan Ghareeb	Nathan Ghareeb	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Nathan Ghareeb has a slight advantage due to his experience and versatility in wins.

Predicted Score: No score predictions available for MMA matches.