Match Analysis: Frederic Vosgröne vs Fabio Moraes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Festhalle Frankfurt, Germany
Game Overview
Frederic Vosgröne (4-0) faces Fabio Moraes (7-1) in a highly anticipated light heavyweight bout at OKTAGON 76. Vosgröne is undefeated and known for his submission-heavy style, while Moraes is a powerful knockout artist with notable finishing ability.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vosgröne enters undefeated with a 100% submission win rate (4/4), showing grappling dominance. Moraes has a strong KO rate (4 of 7), reflecting heavy striking power but has one loss and no submission wins.
- This is their first meeting, no direct H2H data available.
- No reported injuries for either fighter heading into the bout, both appear fully fit.
- Fight takes place in Frankfurt, Germany – Vosgröne's home country which could boost his motivation and fan support.
- Vosgröne aims to maintain undefeated streak, rising as a German MMA prospect at home. Moraes looks to spoil the hometown party and prove finishing power against an unbeaten opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Frederic_Vosgröne: -150, Fabio_Moraes: +130, Draw: +2500 | Frederic Vosgröne | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Frederic Vosgröne -1.5 rounds: +110, Fabio Moraes +1.5 rounds: -130 | Frederic Vosgröne -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: +100 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Frederic Vosgröne to win by submission; Spread: Frederic Vosgröne to win by at least 1.5 rounds; Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds
Predicted Score: Frederic Vosgröne wins by submission Round 2