Match Analysis: Freddy Vidal vs Levi Rodrigues – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-15
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Game Overview

Heavyweight main card bout at Dana White's Contender Series between Freddy Vidal and Levi Rodrigues, both debuting in this event.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have limited professional records with no known official fight history; Vidal is known for aggressive striking while Rodrigues has a strong grappling base.
• No previous head-to-head matchups between Vidal and Rodrigues.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the fight.
• Venue is UFC Apex in Vegas, neutral ground. Both fighters motivated as prospects aiming to impress for UFC contracts.
• High motivation for both, as this is a pivotal opportunity on Dana White's Contender Series to secure a UFC contract.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Freddy Vidal: +135, Levi Rodrigues: -155	Levi Rodrigues	★★★☆☆ 67%
Spread	-1.5 rounds Levi Rodrigues -120	Levi Rodrigues by more than 1.5 rounds (dominant grappling performance likely to control late rounds)	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Under 2.5 rounds -110	Under 2.5 rounds (fight likely to end inside 3 rounds due to high finishing intent from both fighters)	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Levi Rodrigues -13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Levi Rodrigues at -13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Levi Rodrigues to win on the moneyline by leverage of grappling control over Vidal's striking.

Predicted Score: Levi Rodrigues wins by 2nd round submission

Match Analysis: Freddy Vidal vs Felipe Franco – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-10
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Apex

Game Overview

The matchup features undefeated light heavyweight prospects Freddy Vidal (3-0) and Felipe Franco (8-0) in a 3-round DWCS bout. Vidal boasts aggressive striking and knockout power with two first-round KO/TKOs, while Franco has a more experienced record combining KO and submissions, though he has shown ring rust from multiple fight postponements.

Key Factors to Consider

• Felipe Franco is 8-0 with a balanced mix of KO (50%) and submission (38%) finishes; Freddy Vidal is 3-0 with a high finishing rate primarily via KO and heavy hands as a striking specialist.
• No previous head-to-head matchups between Vidal and Franco; both remain undefeated professionally.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the contest.
• Franco has had multiple recent fight postponements potentially causing ring rust; Vidal is younger and recently turned pro less than a year ago with momentum, possibly giving him fresher timing and less tape for Franco to study.
• Both fighters aim to secure a contract through DWCS, but Vidal's recent streak and knockout style suggest high motivation to prove himself on a big stage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Freddy Vidal: +275, Felipe Franco: -325	Freddy Vidal	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Freddy Vidal -1.5: +400, Felipe Franco +1.5: -500	Felipe Franco +1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5: +195, Under 1.5: -235	Under 1.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Felipe Franco 118%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Felipe Franco at 118% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Freddy Vidal to win by knockout

Predicted Score: Freddy Vidal wins by KO/TKO in Round 2

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – September 9, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Freddy Vidal vs. Felipe Franco Prediction	Freddy Vidal	275	39%
Shanelle Dyer vs. Carol Foro Prediction	Under 2.5	117	30%
Chasen Blair vs. Samuel Sanches Prediction	Under 1.5	-110	15%

Combined Odds: +1454 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $310.7