Match Analysis: Freddy Vidal vs Levi Rodrigues – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-15
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series (venue unspecified)

Game Overview

The fight between Freddy Vidal and Levi Rodrigues is a main card Light Heavyweight bout on Dana White's Contender Series. Both fighters are undefeated, Vidal standing at 4-0 and Rodrigues at 5-0. Vidal relies on physical strength, clinch work, top control, and grinding pressure. Rodrigues brings explosive striking, faster pace, and powerful hands but tends to throw wide punches and can be recklessly aggressive. The match is expected to feature plenty of action with contrasting styles—Vidal looking to impose grappling dominance and Rodrigues aiming to capitalize on striking power and speed.

Key Factors to Consider

• Vidal has a strong grappling base and ground-and-pound, with demonstrated clinch control but questionable cardio and takedown defense. Rodrigues boasts all wins by KO/TKO, showing finishing ability and striking explosiveness but has developing takedown defense and can be reckless with wide punches.
• No prior encounters between these two fighters; both are undefeated but with different fight finishes — Vidal has wins by submission, decision, and KO; Rodrigues has all wins by knockout or technical knockout.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of this matchup.
• Both fighters fought recently within a month, with Vidal missing weight and showing fatigue in his last bout. Rodrigues is younger and possibly better conditioned for striking exchanges. The fight occurs at Dana White's Contender Series, a platform known for high stakes and motivation to impress for UFC contracts.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to maintain undefeated records and earn a UFC contract. Vidal fights to redeem after a suboptimal prior performance; Rodrigues aims to continue his dominant finishing streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Freddy Vidal: +135, Levi Rodrigues: -155	Levi Rodrigues to win	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Freddy Vidal: +1.5, Levi Rodrigues: -1.5	Levi Rodrigues to cover -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_1.5_rounds: -110, under_1.5_rounds: -110	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Levi Rodrigues -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Levi Rodrigues at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Levi Rodrigues is favored to win due to superior striking tools, speed, and finishing instinct. While Vidal’s grappling and physicality could impose a grinding game if the fight drags on, Rodrigues’ ability to control pace and capitalize on striking power is likely to determine the outcome.

Predicted Score: Levi Rodrigues by KO/TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Freddy Vidal vs Felipe Franco – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-10
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

Freddy Vidal and Felipe Franco face off in a catchweight MMA bout at Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) Season 9, Week 5. Vidal stepped in on short notice and missed weight by five pounds, forfeiting 25% of his purse to Franco. Vidal holds a 3-0 undefeated record with a 67% KO/TKO rate, while Franco is an 8-0 undefeated fighter with a proven finishing rate via knockouts and submissions. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds and streamed live on ESPN+ in the USA.

Key Factors to Consider

• Felipe Franco boasts an 8-0 record with 50% of wins by KO/TKO and 38% by submission, showing well-rounded finishing skills. Freddy Vidal has a smaller sample size of 3-0 with a 67% KO rate but lacks experience at higher competition levels. Vidal also missed weight, potentially impacting his performance and stamina.
• There is no previous head-to-head fight between Freddy Vidal and Felipe Franco, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the match, but Vidal’s short-notice entry and weight miss imply possible preparation challenges.
• Vidal's catchweight bout due to missing weight suggests a physical disadvantage, and the fight being at UFC Apex with ESPN+ broadcast could add pressure. Vidal forfeited part of his purse to Franco as a penalty.
• Felipe Franco enters with momentum and a desire to maintain his undefeated record, while Vidal’s motivation includes proving himself despite short notice and weight issues. Franco, as the favorite, likely has confidence boosted by recent performances.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Felipe_Franco: -450, Freddy_Vidal: +350	Felipe Franco to win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Felipe_Franco: -1.5 (-230), Freddy_Vidal: +1.5 (+190)	Felipe Franco to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over_1.5: +207, under_1.5: -250	Under 1.5 rounds (fight likely to end before round 2)	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Felipe Franco -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Felipe Franco is favored to win due to his momentum, experience, and Vidal's short notice and weight miss. Franco's versatility in finishing fights via KO or submission adds to his advantage, and the odds strongly support his victory.

Predicted Score: Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO in Round 1