Match Analysis: Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-19
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Prelims, UFC 318
Game Overview
Francisco Prado (Argentina) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Kazakhstan) is a crucial welterweight matchup for both fighters, with Prado looking to rebound and Veretennikov aiming to leverage his striking pedigree against a younger opponent with diverse finishes.
Key Factors to Consider
- Prado is a well-rounded prospect (6 KO, 6 SUB) from a top MMA gym, showing aggression and grappling acumen. Veretennikov is a powerful striker (9 KO in 18 fights, 56% striking accuracy) with strong takedown defense, but was exposed on the ground in his most recent outing[1][2].
- No prior meetings.
- No reported injuries.
- Prado’s camp is known for strategic gameplans; Veretennikov’s comfort zone is the standup, but his ground vulnerability is a clear exploitable weakness[2].
- High for both—loser faces potential UFC exit. Prado’s team likely builds fight around his grappling edge, while Veretennikov must keep it standing to maximize his power[2].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Prado -142 / Veretennikov 120 | Francisco Prado | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Prado -3.5 120 / Veretennikov 3.5 -165 | Francisco Prado -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -166 / Under 2.5 130 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Francisco Prado 7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 38% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Francisco Prado wins by submission, exploiting Veretennikov’s defensive grappling gap after early striking exchanges.
Predicted Score: Francisco Prado by Submission, Round 2