Match Analysis: Filip Hrgović vs David Adeleye – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

Heavyweight boxing bout between Filip Hrgović and David Adeleye scheduled for 10 rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Filip Hrgović is highly favored with an 82-83% estimated chance to win based on recent form and expert odds analysis. Adeleye is viewed as an underdog with limited recent success at this elite level.
• No prior head-to-head matchups; Hrgović's greater experience at top level gives him a significant edge.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Fight takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a neutral venue but with potential motivational boost for Hrgović as the recognized favorite. Broadcast on DAZN PPV.
• Hrgović motivated to solidify status as a top heavyweight contender; Adeleye seeking a major upset to launch his career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Hrgović -500, Adeleye +350	Hrgović	★★★★☆ 83%
Over/under	Over 8.5 rounds -150, Under 8.5 rounds +120	Under 8.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Filip Hrgović -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 8.5 54%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 54% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 45% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Filip Hrgović to win decisively within 10 rounds

Predicted Score: Hrgović wins by TKO or unanimous decision by Round 9

Top EV Parlay for Boxing – August 16, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Raymond Ford vs. Abraham Nova Prediction	Under 10.5	165	59%
Filip Hrgović vs. David Adeleye Prediction	Under 8.5	120	54%
Moses Itauma vs. Dillian Whyte Prediction	Under 4.5	105	33%

Combined Odds: +1095 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $239.03

Match Analysis: Joe Joyce vs Filip Hrgović – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-05
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Co-Op Live Arena in Manchester, UK

Game Overview

Joe Joyce and Filip Hrgović face off in a crucial heavyweight bout, both seeking redemption from recent losses. The stakes are high, with career implications for the winner and loser.

Key Factors to Consider

• Joe Joyce is coming off a string of tough performances, including a decision loss to Derek Chisora and stoppages by Zhilei Zhang, while Filip Hrgović was stopped by Daniel Dubois. Hrgović has a reach advantage and is seven years younger.
• The fighters previously met in 2013 during the World Series Boxing tournament, where Joyce won. However, a lot has changed since then.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter, but Joyce's durability and ability to take shots have been questioned.
• The fight is taking place in Manchester, which might favor Joyce with home advantage, but Hrgović’s speed and technical skill are well-suited for countering this.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to win, as a loss could severely impact their career trajectories.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Hrgović: -370, Joyce: +270	Filip Hrgović	★★★★☆ 77%
Over_under	Over 8.5: +105, Under 8.5: -135	Under 8.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Predicted Outcome

Filip Hrgović is favored to win, given his age, speed, and recent performances.

Predicted Score: Late stoppage win for Hrgović