Match Analysis: Freddy Vidal vs Felipe Franco – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-10
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA
Game Overview
Freddy Vidal and Felipe Franco face off in a catchweight MMA bout at Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) Season 9, Week 5. Vidal stepped in on short notice and missed weight by five pounds, forfeiting 25% of his purse to Franco. Vidal holds a 3-0 undefeated record with a 67% KO/TKO rate, while Franco is an 8-0 undefeated fighter with a proven finishing rate via knockouts and submissions. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds and streamed live on ESPN+ in the USA.
Key Factors to Consider
- Felipe Franco boasts an 8-0 record with 50% of wins by KO/TKO and 38% by submission, showing well-rounded finishing skills. Freddy Vidal has a smaller sample size of 3-0 with a 67% KO rate but lacks experience at higher competition levels. Vidal also missed weight, potentially impacting his performance and stamina.
- There is no previous head-to-head fight between Freddy Vidal and Felipe Franco, making this their first encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the match, but Vidal’s short-notice entry and weight miss imply possible preparation challenges.
- Vidal's catchweight bout due to missing weight suggests a physical disadvantage, and the fight being at UFC Apex with ESPN+ broadcast could add pressure. Vidal forfeited part of his purse to Franco as a penalty.
- Felipe Franco enters with momentum and a desire to maintain his undefeated record, while Vidal’s motivation includes proving himself despite short notice and weight issues. Franco, as the favorite, likely has confidence boosted by recent performances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Felipe_Franco: -450, Freddy_Vidal: +350 | Felipe Franco to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Felipe_Franco: -1.5 (-230), Freddy_Vidal: +1.5 (+190) | Felipe Franco to win by more than 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | over_1.5: +207, under_1.5: -250 | Under 1.5 rounds (fight likely to end before round 2) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Felipe Franco -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Felipe Franco is favored to win due to his momentum, experience, and Vidal's short notice and weight miss. Franco's versatility in finishing fights via KO or submission adds to his advantage, and the odds strongly support his victory.
Predicted Score: Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO in Round 1