Match Analysis: Freddy Vidal vs Felipe Franco – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-10
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Apex
Game Overview
The matchup features undefeated light heavyweight prospects Freddy Vidal (3-0) and Felipe Franco (8-0) in a 3-round DWCS bout. Vidal boasts aggressive striking and knockout power with two first-round KO/TKOs, while Franco has a more experienced record combining KO and submissions, though he has shown ring rust from multiple fight postponements.
Key Factors to Consider
- Felipe Franco is 8-0 with a balanced mix of KO (50%) and submission (38%) finishes; Freddy Vidal is 3-0 with a high finishing rate primarily via KO and heavy hands as a striking specialist.
- No previous head-to-head matchups between Vidal and Franco; both remain undefeated professionally.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the contest.
- Franco has had multiple recent fight postponements potentially causing ring rust; Vidal is younger and recently turned pro less than a year ago with momentum, possibly giving him fresher timing and less tape for Franco to study.
- Both fighters aim to secure a contract through DWCS, but Vidal's recent streak and knockout style suggest high motivation to prove himself on a big stage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Freddy Vidal: +275, Felipe Franco: -325 | Freddy Vidal | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Freddy Vidal -1.5: +400, Felipe Franco +1.5: -500 | Felipe Franco +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: +195, Under 1.5: -235 | Under 1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Felipe Franco 118% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Felipe Franco at 118% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Freddy Vidal to win by knockout
Predicted Score: Freddy Vidal wins by KO/TKO in Round 2