Rafael Estevam vs. Felipe Bunes Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Rafael Estevam vs Felipe Bunes – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

Rafael Estevam (13-0) is an undefeated up-and-coming fighter with a strong striking defence and efficient significant strike accuracy, facing veteran Felipe Bunes (14-7) who has more striking volume but less defensive prowess. Estevam's youth, defensive skills, and technical precision make him a strong favorite, while Bunes' experience and aggression represent a threat.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Estevam maintains an undefeated record (13-0) showing consistent dominance with a 57% striking accuracy and solid defense, absorbing only 2.94 significant strikes per minute. Bunes, with a 14-7 record, delivers high output at 4.49 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 7.86 strikes, indicating potential defensive vulnerabilities.
  • No previous head-to-head matchups between Rafael Estevam and Felipe Bunes have occurred, making this a fresh competitive encounter.
  • No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter as of the fight date, suggesting both competitors are at full capacity.
  • The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, an environment where Estevam has performed comfortably in past bouts. No adverse travel or acclimation factors noted.
  • Estevam aims to preserve his undefeated record and solidify his rising contender status, providing high motivation. Bunes seeks to revitalize his career with a win against a top prospect, bringing strong motivation despite being the underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -550, away: 410 Rafael Estevam ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread home: -195, away: 140, line: 3.5 Rafael Estevam -3.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under over: -154, under: 120, line: 2.5 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Rafael Estevam -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 28%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rafael Estevam to win decisively on the moneyline, covering the -3.5 spread, with a fight likely finishing under 2.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Estevam wins by TKO late in Round 2


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