Match Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 4:30 PM UTC
• Location: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg, Germany

Game Overview

The match between FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund marks the start of the Bundesliga season. St. Pauli, newly promoted, hosts title contenders Dortmund, setting up a potentially exciting encounter.

Key Factors to Consider

• Borussia Dortmund enjoyed a strong finish to the previous season, while St. Pauli seeks to establish itself in the top league.
• Historically, Dortmund has held the upper hand, but recent form isn't directly comparable given St. Pauli's promotion.
• Notable injuries include Dortmund's Niklas Süle, who will miss the game due to a calf injury.
• The match is at St. Pauli's home, which could provide an energetic atmosphere but might not offset Dortmund's quality.
• Both teams are motivated to start the season positively, but Dortmund's experience and quality give them an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Borussia Dortmund: -132, FC St. Pauli: 360, Draw: 280	Borussia Dortmund	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Borussia Dortmund: -0.75 -104, FC St. Pauli: 75 -116	Borussia Dortmund -0.75	★★★☆☆ 67%
Over/under	Over: 2.75 100, Under: 2.75 -120	Over 2.75	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Borussia Dortmund 11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.75 20%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Borussia Dortmund is likely to win, with a high probability of both teams scoring.

Predicted Score: 2-1 for Borussia Dortmund

Match Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 1:30 PM UTC
• Location: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg – St. Pauli, Germany

Game Overview

The match between FC St. Pauli and VfL Bochum is a crucial Bundesliga fixture as both teams fight to improve their league standings. St. Pauli currently holds 14th place with 32 points, while Bochum languishes in 18th with 22 points, making this encounter significant for relegation battles. St. Pauli requires a win to solidify their safety, while Bochum desperately needs points to avoid relegation. Previous meetings show a balanced rivalry with a high frequency of draws.

Key Factors to Consider

• St. Pauli has shown moderate home form with 3 losses in their last 6 home matches, while Bochum has struggled away and suffered a 65% loss rate this season. St. Pauli’s recent form is slightly better, including a few key wins that have helped them stay above the drop zone, whereas Bochum has been on a poor run of form with multiple losses in recent fixtures.
• In the last 6 head-to-head matches between St. Pauli and Bochum, 50% ended in draws, indicating a competitive and closely contested history. Neither team has dominated, which suggests this match could follow the pattern of tight contests.
• No specific injury data is provided in the current research; however, any key absences especially in defense or midfield could influence the outcome given the tight nature of both teams’ recent performances.
• Playing at Millerntor-Stadion gives St. Pauli a home advantage. Additionally, the motivation to avoid relegation and end the season strongly may impact both teams’ intensity and tactical approach.
• St. Pauli is motivated to secure their Bundesliga status with a win given their precarious position, while Bochum faces immense pressure to escape the relegation zone, making this a high-stakes match for both sides.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	FC St. Pauli: -155, VfL Bochum: 380, Draw: 330	FC St. Pauli win	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	FC St. Pauli -0.75: -122, VfL Bochum +75: 102	FC St. Pauli -0.75	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 3: -105, Under 3: -115	Under 3 goals	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	FC St. Pauli -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

FC St. Pauli is favored to win due to better recent form, home advantage, and higher motivation to secure points, though Bochum will be a tough opponent given their desperation and history of draws between the teams.

Predicted Score: 2-1

Match Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 3 May 2025
• Time: 1:30 PM UTC
• Location: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg – St. Pauli, Germany

Game Overview

Mid-table clash between 14th-placed FC St. Pauli and 11th-placed VfB Stuttgart. Limited head-to-head data available for the 2024/2025 season, with only one prior meeting mentioned in search results (specific outcome unreported). Both teams demonstrated attacking intent in previous fixtures, with Stuttgart showing offensive flair via players like Führich and Stiller.

Key Factors to Consider

• Stuttgart displays better recent form based on implied match commentary (creating chances, aggressive attacks), while St. Pauli relies on Guilavogui's return to boost their attack[1][4].
• Insufficient head-to-head data for the current season. Historical Bundesliga encounters are not detailed in available sources[1][3][5].
• No specific injury reports available in provided data.
• Home advantage for St. Pauli at the Millerntor-Stadion, known for its passionate crowd[2][5].
• Both teams likely pushing for mid-table security, with potential for high-intensity play given close league positions[1][2].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	FC St. Pauli: +170 | Draw: +255 | VfB Stuttgart: +150	VfB Stuttgart (moneyline)	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	FC St. Pauli: 0 (+100) | VfB Stuttgart: 0 (-120)	VfB Stuttgart (spread)	★★★☆☆ 52%
Over/under	Over 2.75 (+102) | Under 2.75 (-122)	Under 2.75 goals	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	VfB Stuttgart 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.75 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

VfB Stuttgart to edge a close match given marginally better squad depth and recent attacking form, but St. Pauli's home advantage introduces volatility.

Predicted Score: 1-2

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao Prediction	Real Madrid Win	-150	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
FC St. Pauli vs. Bayer Leverkusen Prediction	Bayer Leverkusen -0.75	-112	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Fluminense vs. Vitoria Prediction	Fluminense Win	-170	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +401

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $100.21

Match Analysis: Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-12
• Time: 1:30 PM UTC
• Location: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel, Germany

Game Overview

Holstein Kiel faces FC St. Pauli in a crucial Bundesliga match, with both teams struggling for form. St. Pauli ranks 15th, while Holstein Kiel is 18th, indicating the importance of this match in their season.

Key Factors to Consider

• Holstein Kiel has struggled this season with only 18 points from 28 games, while St. Pauli has managed 25 points. Recent performances show mixed results for both teams.
• Historically, matches between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli often end in competitive results, with the most common outcome being a 1-1 draw. However, St. Pauli has had a slight edge in recent matches.
• Both teams face injuries, with notable absences for Holstein Kiel including Patrick Erras and Benedikt Pichler, while St. Pauli misses players like Simon Zoller and Karol Mets.
• The home advantage could be crucial for Holstein Kiel, but they have struggled to capitalize on it consistently.
• Both teams are motivated to gain points to avoid relegation, with every match being critical to their season's outcome.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	FC St. Pauli: 135, Holstein Kiel: 205, Draw: 245	Draw or St. Pauli Win	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	FC St. Pauli: -0.25 102, Holstein Kiel: 25 -122	Holstein Kiel +0.25	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -105, Under 2.5: -115	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	FC St. Pauli 41%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: FC St. Pauli at 41% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given their recent performances and historical data, St. Pauli might have a slight edge, but the match could be closely contested, and a draw is plausible.

Predicted Score: 1-1 or 1-2 in favor of St. Pauli

Match Analysis: Bayern Munich vs FC St. Pauli – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-29
• Time: 2:30 PM UTC
• Location: Allianz Arena

Game Overview

Bayern Munich, the top team in the Bundesliga, hosts FC St. Pauli, who are currently 14th in the league. Bayern has a strong record against promoted teams at home and a favorable head-to-head history against St. Pauli.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bayern Munich has been dominant this season, scoring 75 goals and conceding only 24 in 26 games. St. Pauli, on the other hand, has scored just 20 goals while conceding 30.
• Bayern Munich has a significant advantage historically, winning eight of their last nine matches against St. Pauli. The most recent meeting ended in a 0-1 win for Bayern.
• Bayern Munich is missing players like João Palhinha and Kim Min-Jae, while St. Pauli has key players like M. Guilavogui and J. Sands sidelined.
• The home advantage and Bayern's strong attacking lineup favor them, but St. Pauli's solid defensive record could pose some challenges.
• Bayern Munich is highly motivated to maintain their top position in the league, while St. Pauli needs points to avoid relegation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-725 (Bayern), 1700 (St. Pauli), 750 (Draw)	Bayern Munich	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	-2.25 -105 (Bayern), 2.25 -115 (St. Pauli)	Bayern Munich -2.25	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over_under	Over 3.25 -108, Under 3.25 -112	Over 3.25	★★★★☆ 70%

Predicted Outcome

Bayern Munich is likely to win due to their stronger team performance and historical advantages.

Predicted Score: Bayern Munich 3, FC St. Pauli 0

Match Analysis: VfL Wolfsburg vs FC St. Pauli – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-08
• Time: 2:30 PM UTC
• Location: Volkswagen Arena

Game Overview

VfL Wolfsburg, currently 7th in the Bundesliga, hosts FC St. Pauli, who are 15th. Wolfsburg has shown stronger form recently, while St. Pauli struggles to secure wins.

Key Factors to Consider

• Wolfsburg has a better overall performance with 10 wins compared to St. Pauli's 6. Wolfsburg recently beat Bremen 2-1, while St. Pauli lost to Dortmund 0-2.
• The last match between them ended in a 0-0 draw. Historically, Wolfsburg has a slight edge but not significantly dominant.
• No specific injury reports are highlighted for this match.
• Home advantage could favor Wolfsburg, but St. Pauli might be motivated to improve their relegation position.
• Wolfsburg aims to maintain their top-half position, while St. Pauli needs points to avoid relegation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	FC St. Pauli: 370, VfL Wolfsburg: -135, Draw: 280	VfL Wolfsburg	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	FC St. Pauli: 75 -115, VfL Wolfsburg: -0.75 -105	VfL Wolfsburg -0.75	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -112, Under: 2.5 -108	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Wolfsburg is likely to win due to their stronger form and home advantage.

Predicted Score: 2-1 in favor of VfL Wolfsburg

Match Analysis: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-22
• Time: 2:30 PM UTC
• Location: Mewa Arena

Game Overview

FSV Mainz 05 hosts FC St. Pauli in a Bundesliga match. Mainz 05 is currently in 6th place, while St. Pauli is in 14th. Mainz 05 has a strong head-to-head record against St. Pauli.

Key Factors to Consider

• FSV Mainz 05 has shown mixed form in the Bundesliga, winning five home games. St. Pauli is also in mixed form, having won four away games.
• In their past meetings, Mainz 05 has dominated St. Pauli, winning four out of seven matches. Mainz 05 has scored an average of 2.29 goals against St. Pauli's 1.29.
• No specific injury reports are available for this match.
• Weather and crowd support could influence the match, but no significant external factors are noted.
• Mainz 05 is motivated to maintain their position in the league, while St. Pauli seeks to improve their standings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	FSV Mainz 05: -140, FC St. Pauli: 390, Draw: 240	FSV Mainz 05	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	FSV Mainz 05: -0.5 -120, FC St. Pauli: 0.5 100	FSV Mainz 05 -0.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over_under	Over 2.5: 104, Under 2.5: -136	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

FSV Mainz 05 is likely to win due to their strong head-to-head record and home advantage.

Predicted Score: 2-1 in favor of FSV Mainz 05