Match Analysis: FC Dallas vs San Diego FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-29
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, USA
Game Overview
The MLS match between FC Dallas and San Diego FC features two teams with contrasting recent forms and standings. FC Dallas is currently ranked 10th in the league and has gathered 8 points in their last 5 games, averaging 1.6 points per game. San Diego FC stands stronger at 2nd place, showing better defensive solidity with 0.8 goals conceded per match and an Asian handicap win percentage of 60%. Their head-to-head history is limited but competitive, including one match this season where San Diego FC won decisively 5-0. FC Dallas has a slightly higher recent Asian handicap win rate at 80% and tends to have matches with over 3 goals 60% of the time, indicating an attacking style that often yields goals both ways.
Key Factors to Consider
- FC Dallas has shown moderate consistency with 8 points from the last 5 matches but concedes an average of 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. San Diego FC has been stronger defensively and more clinical, winning 3 of their last 5 matches and conceding less than 1 goal per game.
- Only two recorded matches between these sides exist recently, with San Diego FC winning one and the other ending in a draw. The single encounter in 2025 saw San Diego FC winning 5-0, highlighting a potential psychological edge. Both teams show decent Asian handicap performance and a tendency towards over 3 goals games historically.
- No specific injury information is available in the current data sources, so it is assumed both teams have their regular squad options available.
- The match is played at FC Dallas' home ground, Toyota Stadium, which can provide home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions were not specified and assumed normal.
- San Diego FC’s higher league standing and recent form likely motivate them to maintain momentum and challenge for the top position. FC Dallas, positioned mid-table, will be eager to capitalize on home advantage to improve their ranking and halt San Diego’s progress.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | FC Dallas: 210, San Diego FC: 120, Draw: 270 | San Diego FC win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | FC Dallas: 25 -110, San Diego FC: -0.25 -110 | San Diego FC -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 3: -105, Under 3: -115 | Over 3 goals | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego FC 14% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: San Diego FC at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego FC is favored to win due to their superior league position, stronger recent form, and decisive recent head-to-head victory. However, FC Dallas’ home advantage and scoring ability suggest the match could be competitive and high-scoring.
Predicted Score: 1-2