Match Analysis: Excelsior vs Feyenoord – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 4:45 PM UTC
• Location: Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Game Overview

Excelsior hosts Feyenoord in the second round of the 2025-26 Eredivisie season. Excelsior suffered a heavy 5-0 defeat to NEC Nijmegen in their opener, indicating defensive frailties. Feyenoord, despite a recent heavy loss in the UEFA Champions League qualifiers, start their domestic campaign in solid form with a recent Eredivisie win and have historically dominated Excelsior in head-to-head matches.

Key Factors to Consider

• Excelsior are struggling early in the season, conceding many goals and sitting at the bottom of the league. Feyenoord have momentum with a winning start in the Eredivisie and stronger squad depth, although fatigued from recent European fixtures.
• Feyenoord dominate the head-to-head record with 16 wins to Excelsior's 3 and no draws. Feyenoord have won the last four meetings consecutively and have outscored Excelsior 15-3 in these matches.
• No explicit injury data is provided, but Feyenoord’s squad is reported as stretched after European fixtures. Excelsior’s injury status is not specifically noted.
• Feyenoord are coming off a Champions League exit but have progressed to the Europa League group stage, which could affect freshness. Excelsior will be motivated to rebound from a heavy opening loss in front of their home fans.
• Feyenoord seek to respond to European disappointment with a strong league performance and consolidate their position among Eredivisie leaders. Excelsior are motivated to avoid early-season relegation pressure and improve after their opening defeat.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Excelsior: 445, Feyenoord: -210, Draw: 395	Feyenoord win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Excelsior: 1.25 -118, Feyenoord: -1.25 -102	Feyenoord -1.25	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over: 3.25 -102, Under: 3.25 -118	Over 3.25 goals	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Feyenoord -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 3.25 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3.25 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Feyenoord are predicted to win with confidence due to superior recent form, historical dominance, and squad quality. Excelsior might score but are expected to concede multiple goals.

Predicted Score: Excelsior 1 – 3 Feyenoord

Match Analysis: NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 2:30 PM UTC
• Location: Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen, Netherlands

Game Overview

NEC Nijmegen hosts Excelsior in the opening match of the 2025-26 Eredivisie season. NEC enters after a mixed pre-season with a recent 3-1 win over Blackburn Rovers but released competitive action following a UEFA Conference League playoff loss to Twente. Excelsior, newly promoted to Eredivisie following their runners-up finish in the Eerste Divisie, await their first top-flight game after a pre-season that included a 3-2 loss to Cambuur. Both teams aim to secure three points for a positive start at Stadion de Goffert.

Key Factors to Consider

• NEC Nijmegen showed strong attacking potential in pre-season, highlighted by a 3-1 win against Blackburn with notable performances from Tjarron Chery and Kento Siogai. Excelsior struggled defensively in pre-season friendlies but demonstrated resilience and scoring ability in their Eerste Divisie campaign that earned promotion.
• Historical H2H data between NEC and Excelsior is limited for recent seasons due to Excelsior's time in lower leagues. Generally, NEC holds slight advantages at home in Eredivisie clashes, but with Excelsior’s momentum from promotion, the matchup is expected to be competitive.
• No specific injury reports available for either side at this time; both teams appear to have full squads ready for kickoff.
• NEC has the advantage of playing at home with fan support at Stadion de Goffert. Excelsior might face challenges adapting back to Eredivisie pace after time in Eerste Divisie. Weather conditions around match day are expected to be typical for early August in the Netherlands, unlikely to impact gameplay significantly.
• NEC aims to rebound from last season’s European playoff disappointment and start the domestic league strong. Excelsior is motivated to prove their ability in Eredivisie after promotion, seeking to establish themselves early with a positive result.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	NEC Nijmegen: -136, Excelsior: 340, Draw: 285	NEC Nijmegen win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	NEC Nijmegen: -0.75 -105, Excelsior: 75 -115	NEC Nijmegen -0.75	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.75: -105, Under 2.75: -115	Under 2.75 goals	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	NEC Nijmegen -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.75 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The prediction leans towards a narrow home victory for NEC Nijmegen, supported by their higher-level experience and home advantage, though Excelsior’s recent ascent and fighting spirit could limit margin.

Predicted Score: 2-1