Match Analysis: NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: De Goffert, Nijmegen
Game Overview
NEC Nijmegen hosts Excelsior in the Eredivisie season opener. NEC are favorites based on preseason form and home advantage, while Excelsior are seen as underdogs.
Key Factors to Consider
- NEC Nijmegen showed strong preseason form with multiple wins and consistent scoring, whereas Excelsior have demonstrated attacking potential but less consistent results.
- Recent matches slightly favor NEC Nijmegen, with them having a better record in prior Eredivisie encounters and stronger home performances against Excelsior.
- No major injury concerns publicly indicated for either side at this time, suggesting both teams can field near-optimal lineups.
- NEC Nijmegen enjoys home advantage at De Goffert, known for solid support and conditions favorable to the home team; no external disruptions noted.
- Both teams motivated to start the season positively, but NEC Nijmegen likely has additional motivation as home favorites to assert dominance early.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | NEC Nijmegen -136, Draw 285, Excelsior 340 | NEC Nijmegen | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | NEC Nijmegen -0.75 (-105), Excelsior +75 (-115) | NEC Nijmegen -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75 -105, Under 2.75 -115 | Over 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | NEC Nijmegen 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
NEC Nijmegen to win the match outright (moneyline), cover the -0.75 goal spread, and the match to go over 2.75 goals.
Predicted Score: 3-1