Match Analysis: Eworitse Ezra Arenyeka vs Billy Deniz – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Co-op Live, Manchester, UK
Game Overview
An 8-round light heavyweight bout between undefeated Billy Deniz (13-0, 5 KOs) and Eworitse Ezra Arenyeka (14-1, 11 KOs), as part of the Buatsi vs Parker undercard, broadcast live on DAZN. Deniz is younger (25 vs 29), has a higher win rate (100% vs 93%), and has never been beaten, while Arenyeka has more KO power but also a loss on his record. Both are orthodox, similar size, and have been on similar inactivity timelines (Deniz: 294 days, Arenyeka: 197 days). The build-up has been heated, with Arenyeka throwing an egg at Deniz in the final face-off, indicating heightened tensions[1][4].
Key Factors to Consider
- Deniz has a perfect record and higher KO efficiency than expected for his tall, reach-focused style, but has faced less proven opposition. Arenyeka has shown finishing power (79% KO rate), but his loss suggests vulnerability at this level.
- No prior meetings. Deniz has been more consistent. Arenyeka has faced stiffer competition but comes in with a loss.
- No public reports of injuries for either fighter.
- High-profile undercard fight with both fighters eager to prove themselves, but Deniz is the local favorite. The pre-fight antics suggest both are emotionally invested, which could lead to riskier fight strategies[4][5].
- Deniz is defending his unblemished record; Arenyeka is the clear underdog and may fight aggressively, but may also be overmatched against an elite technician.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Deniz -460, Arenyeka +305 | Billy Deniz | ★★★★☆ 79% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Eworitse Ezra Arenyeka -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Eworitse Ezra Arenyeka at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Deniz's technical consistency and undefeated record give him a significant edge despite Arenyeka's power. Expect a disciplined, methodical performance from Deniz, but Arenyeka's KO threat means a finish is possible if he finds the mark early. Most likely, Deniz weathers the early storm and outworks Arenyeka over 8 rounds.
Predicted Score: Deniz by unanimous decision (80-72, 79-73, 79-73)