Sara Bailey vs. Evelin Nazarena Bermudez Prediction Boxing

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Match Analysis: Sara Bailey vs Evelin Nazarena Bermudez – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-20
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Hard Rock LIVE, Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada

Game Overview

This is a world junior flyweight title unification fight featuring undefeated WBA champion Sara Bailey against the seasoned and unified IBF and WBO champion Evelin Nazarena Bermudez. With three major belts on the line, the bout represents a milestone in Canadian boxing and has significant implications for the division's undisputed championship picture.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sara Bailey holds a perfect 6-0 professional record, rapidly ascending by winning the WBA title in only her fourth fight and defending it twice. Evelin Bermudez has more extensive experience with a record of 21-2-2, multiple title reigns, and unified the IBF and WBO belts. Bermudez uses high punch volume and aggression, while Bailey employs a technical style with precise counterpunching.
  • This is their first professional encounter, so no direct head-to-head history exists.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the fight.
  • Fight is held in Ottawa, Canada, providing a home advantage atmosphere favoring Sara Bailey. The event is historic for the region, adding local crowd motivation for Bailey.
  • Bailey seeks to unify three world titles early in her career, an opportunity for legacy-building. Bermudez aims to prove her dominance in the division after regaining titles and defending them multiple times, facing a rising star in Bailey.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Evelin Nazarena Bermudez: -150, Sara Bailey: +120 Evelin Nazarena Bermudez ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Evelin Nazarena Bermudez -1.5 (+135), Sara Bailey +1.5 (-165) Evelin Nazarena Bermudez -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 10.5 rounds (-110), Under 10.5 rounds (-110) Over 10.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 78%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Evelin Nazarena Bermudez -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Evelin Nazarena Bermudez at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Evelin Nazarena Bermudez to win by decision

Predicted Score: Evelin Nazarena Bermudez wins by unanimous decision, 116-112


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