Match Analysis: Evansville Purple Aces vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 12, 2025
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Ford Center, Evansville, Indiana

Game Overview

Middle Tennessee (2-0) travels to Evansville (2-1) for a non-conference matchup. The Blue Raiders have demonstrated impressive offensive efficiency and ball movement through their first two games, while the Purple Aces have secured consecutive home victories. This represents a significant step up in competition for both teams after facing weaker non-conference opponents.

Key Factors to Consider

• Middle Tennessee is posting exceptional early-season numbers: 104.5 PPG while limiting opponents to 53.5 PPG, 50% field goal shooting, and nearly 25 assists per game. Kamari Lands leads with 15.0 PPG on 59.1% shooting. Evansville has been more efficient defensively (59.7 PPG allowed, 42.3% opponent FG%) but faces a significant step up in opponent quality. The Blue Raiders' rebounding and athleticism provide structural advantages.
• Middle Tennessee defeated Evansville 80-63 in their last matchup. The Blue Raiders have shown they can control this opponent's pace and intensity.
• No significant injuries reported for either team.
• This is Evansville's home game at Ford Center where they have won their last two contests, providing some home-court advantage. However, Middle Tennessee's offensive system and shooting efficiency translate well regardless of venue. The game is being broadcast on ESPN+, a neutral platform.
• Both teams are undefeated or nearly so and looking to establish legitimacy. Middle Tennessee seeks to prove their strong start is sustainable against better competition. Evansville is motivated to protect their home court and validate recent success, but they're facing a significantly more talented and efficient offensive unit.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	MTU -108 | EVAN -112	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Evansville -1.5 102 | Middle Tennessee 1.5 -122	Middle Tennessee +1.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 142.5 -105 | Under 142.5 -115	Over 142.5	★★★☆☆ 56%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 142.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders to win outright and cover the spread. The Blue Raiders' elite offensive efficiency (50% FG, 25 APG), superior athleticism, and previous head-to-head victory provide substantial advantages. Evansville's solid defense will be tested against Middle Tennessee's ball movement and shooting. Expect a moderately close game that Middle Tennessee wins by 4-6 points.

Predicted Score: Middle Tennessee 79, Evansville 74

Match Analysis: Murray St Racers vs Evansville Purple Aces – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 7, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis

Game Overview

The Murray State Racers, with a record of 15-16, face off against the Evansville Purple Aces, who are 11-20. This matchup is part of the MVC Tournament.

Key Factors to Consider

• Murray State has a slight edge in overall performance, with a stronger record against the spread and in recent games. Evansville has shown resilience, especially when scoring above 69.6 points.
• Murray State has dominated the head-to-head matchups, winning five of the last six encounters.
• No significant injury reports are available for this matchup.
• The neutral venue at Enterprise Center could affect team dynamics, but Murray State's recent form suggests they might adapt better.
• Both teams are highly motivated as they compete in the MVC Tournament, but Murray State's recent performance indicates a stronger drive to win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Evansville: +195, Murray State: -240	Murray State	★★★★☆ 80%
Spread	Evansville: +5.5 -110, Murray State: -5.5 -110	Murray State	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over_under	Over: 130.5 -110, Under: 130.5 -110	Over	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Murray State is likely to win due to their recent form and head-to-head dominance.

Predicted Score: Murray State 72, Evansville 67

Match Analysis: Illinois St Redbirds vs Evansville Purple Aces – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-02
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: CEFCU Arena, Normal, IL

Game Overview

Illinois State Redbirds host Evansville Purple Aces in a Missouri Valley Conference matchup. Illinois State is favored due to their stronger offense and recent performance, while Evansville has shown defensive prowess in previous meetings.

Key Factors to Consider

• Illinois State has a strong offense, averaging 79.1 points per game with a 49.8% field goal percentage. Evansville, however, has struggled with scoring, averaging 64.9 points per game. Evansville's defense has been effective, particularly in their recent win against Illinois State.
• Illinois State has won six of their last ten games against Evansville, but Evansville won their most recent matchup 69-51 on January 8, 2025.
• No specific injury reports are available for this matchup.
• Illinois State is celebrating Senior Day, which could boost their motivation and home crowd support.
• Both teams are motivated, but Illinois State's Senior Day and desire to avenge their recent loss could give them an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Evansville: 410, Illinois State: -590	Illinois State	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Evansville: +10.5 -110, Illinois State: -10.5 -110	Illinois State	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over_under	Over: 142.5 -110, Under: 142.5 -110	Over	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Illinois State Redbirds are likely to win due to their strong offense and home advantage.

Predicted Score: Illinois State 80, Evansville 65

Match Analysis: Evansville Purple Aces vs Drake Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: February 26, 2025
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Ford Center

Game Overview

The Drake Bulldogs, with a strong 25-3 record, face the Evansville Purple Aces, who are 11-18. Drake is on a seven-game road win streak and looks to extend it against Evansville.

Key Factors to Consider

• Drake has been performing well, with a 15-11 ATS record and a strong offense led by Bennett Stirtz. Evansville has struggled, with a 13-15 ATS record, but has shown resilience in recent games.
• In their last meeting, Drake dominated Evansville 63-40, utilizing a strong second-half performance. Drake leads the series and has historically performed well against Evansville.
• No reported injuries for either team.
• The game is at Evansville's home, which could provide some advantage, but Drake's recent road success suggests they can overcome this.
• Drake is highly motivated to maintain their winning streak and secure a strong position in the MVC standings. Evansville seeks to upset and improve their conference record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Drake -400, Evansville +310	Drake	☆☆☆☆☆ 1%
Spread	Drake -8.5, Evansville +8.5	Drake	☆☆☆☆☆ 1%
Over_under	Over 122, Under 122	Under	☆☆☆☆☆ 1%

Predicted Outcome

Drake is expected to win due to their superior performance and recent dominance over Evansville.

Predicted Score: Drake 72, Evansville 62

Match Analysis: UIC Flames vs Evansville Purple Aces – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: February 22, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: Credit Union 1 Arena, Chicago, IL

Game Overview

The UIC Flames host the Evansville Purple Aces in a Missouri Valley Conference matchup. UIC aims to maintain their home advantage, while Evansville seeks their first road win.

Key Factors to Consider

• UIC has a stronger home record, going 8-5, while Evansville struggles on the road. UIC's defense allows 74.0 points per game, which could challenge Evansville's offense.
• In their last meeting, UIC defeated Evansville 88-79, showcasing their ability to outscore the Purple Aces.
• No significant injury reports are available for this matchup.
• Home-court advantage could significantly impact UIC's performance, as they have been more successful at home.
• Both teams are motivated, but UIC's desire to protect their home record may give them an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	UIC Flames: -285, Evansville Purple Aces: 230	UIC Flames	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	UIC Flames: -6.5 -114, Evansville Purple Aces: 6.5 -106	UIC Flames	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over: 143.5 -115, Under: 143.5 -105	Over	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

UIC Flames are likely to win due to their home advantage and past performance against Evansville.

Predicted Score: UIC Flames 75, Evansville Purple Aces 68