Match Analysis: Eemil Kurhela vs Eugen Black-Dell – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: OKTAGON 80
Game Overview
This is a featherweight bout between Finnish prospect Eemil Kurhela and Eugen Black-Dell at OKTAGON 80. Kurhela enters as the favored fighter based on his impressive finishing rate and recent record, while Black-Dell represents a competitive challenger. The match showcases contrasting fighting styles with Kurhela's demonstrated knockout power against Black-Dell's submission capabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Eemil Kurhela is a Finnish MMA prospect with an impressive 7-3 professional record, featuring 6 finishes (5 in round 1), demonstrating exceptional striking power and fight-ending ability. His recent performance includes a loss to Marco Novak on December 29, 2024, representing his last outing. Eugen Black-Dell maintains a 9-8 professional record with a more mixed finishing profile, holding an edge in decision victories.
- No previous head-to-head history exists between these fighters, making this their first professional matchup. Both fighters operate at similar competitive levels within the OKTAGON promotion, with comparable experience but different stylistic approaches.
- No injury information available from current sources.
- Kurhela competes under his home club 03 Fight Team, providing potential home-country familiarity advantage. Both fighters are ranked relatively close in the featherweight division (Kurhela ranked higher), indicating competitive parity in terms of promotion respect.
- Kurhela appears motivated to bounce back from his December 2024 loss to Marco Novak, seeking to return to his finishing form. Black-Dell enters with momentum from his recent performance streak (W-W-W-L-W), looking to establish himself against a rising prospect.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Eemil Kurhela -155 | Eugen Black-Dell +115 | Eemil Kurhela Victory | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Based on finishing rates: Over 1.5 rounds favored | Fight concludes before round 3 (under 2.5 rounds) | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Eemil Kurhela 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Eemil Kurhela at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Eemil Kurhela is predicted to secure victory via finish (knockout or submission) in the second or third round. His superior finishing rate (5 round-1 finishes out of 7 wins) and current form suggest he will overcome Black-Dell's defensive wrestling. However, Black-Dell's submission threat and technical grappling cannot be dismissed.
Predicted Score: Eemil Kurhela def. Eugen Black-Dell via TKO (Round 2, 3:15) – The Finnish prospect's superior finishing ability and recent confidence overcome Black-Dell's grappling defense, resulting in a stoppage victory that reinforces Kurhela's knockout prowess.