Match Analysis: Ethyn Ewing vs Malcolm Wellmaker – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-16
• Time: 1:15 AM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Game Overview

Malcolm Wellmaker (10-0) enters as an undefeated and experienced UFC competitor whereas Ethyn Ewing (8-2) is making his UFC debut as a late replacement. Wellmaker is a significant favorite reflecting his superior experience and undefeated record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Wellmaker has a perfect 10-0 record with recent continuous wins, showing consistency and experience at higher competition levels. Ewing is 8-2 overall but has not fought in the UFC before, making this a step up in competition.
• No previous matchups between Wellmaker and Ewing exist, so no direct historical comparison is available.
• No injuries reported for either fighter ahead of this matchup, though Ewing’s late scratch replacement status may indicate some preparation disadvantage.
• Fight takes place at Madison Square Garden in UFC 322, offering a large stage but no known external conditions affecting performance such as altitude or travel advantage.
• Wellmaker looks to preserve his undefeated UFC status, while Ewing is highly motivated to make a strong impression in his UFC debut stepping in late.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ethyn Ewing: +400, Malcolm Wellmaker: -550	Malcolm Wellmaker	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Malcolm Wellmaker -1.5 rounds: -150, Ethyn Ewing +1.5 rounds: +130	Malcolm Wellmaker -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: +140, Under 1.5 rounds: -160	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Malcolm Wellmaker -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Malcolm Wellmaker to win by moneyline given his undefeated record and UFC experience, with a strong likelihood the fight goes under 1.5 rounds due to Wellmaker's finishing ability and Ewing’s debut pressure.

Predicted Score: Malcolm Wellmaker wins by TKO/Submission in Round 1

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Ethyn Ewing vs. Malcolm Wellmaker Prediction	Malcolm Wellmaker Win	-550	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Kyle Daukaus Prediction	Kyle Daukaus Win	-425	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Maciej Kazieczko vs. Adam Masaev Prediction	Adam Masaev Win	-410	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -123

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $36.32

Match Analysis: Ethyn Ewing vs Billy Brand – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-07
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Wheatland, California, United States

Game Overview

Ethyn Ewing faces Billy Brand in a pivotal MMA matchup at Urijah Faber's A1 Combat 32. Ewing enters as the heavy favorite, with significant odds disparity reflecting his perceived edge in skill, recent form, and local support. Brand, the underdog, is known for his durability and counter-striking, but faces a tough stylistic challenge.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ethyn Ewing has won 4 of his last 5 fights, all by decision or submission, showing strong grappling and cardio. Billy Brand has gone 2-3 in his last 5, with both wins coming via late stoppages against less experienced opposition.
• No prior H2H matchup exists between Ewing and Brand.
• No reported injuries for either fighter. Both are cleared and expected to compete at full strength.
• Ewing is fighting in his home state, with strong crowd support and familiarity with the venue. The event is promoted by Urijah Faber, known for favoring technical, well-rounded fighters like Ewing.
• Ewing is seeking a statement win to push for a UFC contract. Brand is fighting to regain momentum after a string of losses and prove he belongs at this level.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -280, away: +240	Ethyn Ewing	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	home: -1.5, away: +1.5	Ethyn Ewing -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over: -110, under: -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 71%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ethyn Ewing -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ethyn Ewing at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ethyn Ewing wins by decision or late stoppage, controlling the pace and out-grappling Brand over three rounds.

Predicted Score: Ethyn Ewing wins by unanimous decision