Match Analysis: Estudiantes La Plata vs Flamengo-RJ – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-25
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Estadio UNO Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata, Argentina
Game Overview
This is the decisive second leg of the 2025-2026 CONMEBOL Libertadores quarter-finals. Flamengo holds an advantage after winning the first leg 2-1 away. Estudiantes La Plata aims to overturn the deficit playing at home with key players Santiago Ascacíbar and Guido Carrillo, while Flamengo relies on their stars Pedro and Giorgian de Arrascaeta to maintain their lead.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo showed strong offensive power and tactical dominance in the first leg, scoring early and effectively controlling the match despite a red card incident. Estudiantes have struggled recently in the Argentine league with only one win in their last five matches and key defensive injuries, including Leandro González Pírez out for a month.
- Recent Copa Libertadores quarter-final first leg ended 2-1 in favor of Flamengo. Historically, Flamengo has been a more consistent continental performer, but Estudiantes is known for resilience on home soil.
- Estudiantes have at least two major absences: defender Leandro González Pírez and winger Edwuin Cetré, both significantly weakening their defensive and offensive options. Flamengo’s squad is expected near full strength.
- The match will be played at Estudiantes’ home stadium. The crowd and home advantage could boost Estudiantes’ motivation. Weather and pitch conditions have not been reported as concerns.
- Estudiantes are highly motivated to overturn the deficit and continue their Libertadores campaign. Flamengo is motivated to protect their lead and progress to the semifinals, considered one of the favorites in this edition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Estudiantes La Plata: 255, Flamengo-RJ: 115, Draw: 230 | Flamengo-RJ | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Estudiantes La Plata: 25 -105, Flamengo-RJ: -0.25 -125 | Flamengo-RJ -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 2 -130, Under: 2 100 | Over 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo-RJ 23% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2 -3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Flamengo-RJ at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo is favored to win or at least secure a draw to advance, but Estudiantes’ home advantage and desperation might push for a close match. Expect a competitive game with cautious play from Flamengo and attacking urgency from Estudiantes.
Predicted Score: 1-2 Flamengo-RJ