Match Analysis: Estoril vs Arouca – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 8:15 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril, Portugal
Game Overview
Estoril Praia hosts Arouca in a Primeira Liga clash at the Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota. Estoril comes into the match off a convincing 4-1 win, ending a four-match winless run, but their home form remains inconsistent with just one home victory this season. Arouca has lost their last two league outings and is struggling for consistency, having picked up only 9 points from 10 matches. Both teams are mid-table, with Estoril on 10 points and Arouca on 9. The match is expected to be tight, with both sides seeking to improve their league position.
Key Factors to Consider
- Estoril Praia has shown signs of improvement after a strong win last weekend, scoring 4 goals and keeping their first clean sheet of the season. Their attack has registered 15 goals in 10 matches, but their defense has conceded 14, indicating vulnerability. Home form is a concern, with only one win at the Coimbra da Mota this season. Arouca has lost their last two league games and has struggled defensively, conceding 15 goals in 10 matches. Their attack has been inconsistent, with only 12 goals scored. Both teams have shown flashes of form but lack consistency.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Estoril Praia has won 5 times, Arouca has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent meeting was a 4-1 win for Estoril Praia in March 2025. Estoril has a slight edge in recent encounters, but the rivalry is closely contested.
- No significant injuries or suspensions reported for either team ahead of the match.
- The match is being played at Estoril's home ground, which has seen limited success for the hosts this season. The weather is expected to be mild with no adverse conditions affecting play. The referee for the match is Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues.
- Both teams are motivated to climb the league table and improve their mid-table status. Estoril Praia will be looking to build on their recent win and secure consecutive victories for the first time this season. Arouca is eager to bounce back from two consecutive losses and regain confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 101, draw: 265, away: 245 | Estoril Praia to win | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | home: -0.5, away: 50 | Estoril Praia -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Over/under | over: -108, under: -112 | Over 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Estoril -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match is expected to be closely contested, with both teams having shown vulnerability in defense. Estoril Praia's recent form and home advantage give them a slight edge, but Arouca's attacking threat cannot be discounted. A draw or a narrow home win is the most likely outcome.
Predicted Score: 2-1