Match Analysis: Girona vs Espanyol – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-26
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi
Game Overview
Girona hosts Espanyol in a La Liga match where Girona is the slight favorite given home advantage and recent form, with Espanyol also competitive and capable of an upset.
Key Factors to Consider
- Girona has struggled recently with 1 draw and 4 losses in last 5 matches, scoring fewer goals overall. Espanyol has better recent form with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring more goals and keeping more clean sheets.
- Historically, encounters are balanced but Girona is favored slightly at home. Simulations give Girona a 41.1% win chance, Espanyol 33.0%, and draws 25.8%.
- No major injury reports or suspensions impacting key players for either side were noted, so both teams likely at near full strength.
- No significant external factors such as weather or travel fatigue noted; standard La Liga midweek fixture.
- Girona sits lower in the standings and needs points to climb, providing strong motivation at home. Espanyol has momentum from recent wins that boosts confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Girona: 143, Espanyol: 190, Draw: 235 | Girona | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Spread | Girona -0.25: 110, Espanyol +25: -130 | Girona -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -110 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Girona 7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Girona to win on the moneyline, Girona -0.25 spread, and Under 2.5 goals for total score
Predicted Score: 1-0