Match Analysis: Christian Leroy Duncan vs Eryk Anders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
Christian Leroy Duncan and Eryk Anders meet in a middleweight bout at UFC Vegas 109 on August 9, 2025. Duncan (30 years old, 11-2-0) has a height advantage at 6'2" and reach of 79", with a high striking output and accuracy. Anders (38 years old, 17-8-0) is a seasoned southpaw known for pressure fighting and strong defense. The fight will take place in the smaller Octagon at the UFC Apex which favors aggressive fighters like Anders.
Key Factors to Consider
- Duncan connects 4.75 significant strikes per minute with 59% accuracy, defending 51% of strikes. Anders connects 3.54 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy and defends around 50%. Duncan’s output and efficiency in striking are superior, but Anders’ pressure and clinch game are strong assets.
- This will be their first professional meeting; no prior head-to-head history exists.
- No current injury reports for either fighter have been disclosed ahead of the match.
- The smaller Octagon size at UFC Apex favors Anders' high-pressure style and persistence inside the cage. Duncan’s reach advantage might be less impactful in the tighter space.
- Anders is likely highly motivated as this could be his retirement fight and hopes to secure a final bout at Madison Square Garden. Duncan looks to maintain his strong winning momentum and defend his rising status.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Christian Leroy Duncan: -550, Eryk Anders: 410 | Christian Leroy Duncan | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Christian Leroy Duncan -3.5: -205, Eryk Anders +3.5: 150 | Christian Leroy Duncan -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -188, Under 2.5 rounds: 145 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Christian Leroy Duncan -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 40% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Christian Leroy Duncan is favored to win given his superior striking output and accuracy, as well as his age and physical advantages. However, Anders’ pressure and fight IQ could neutralize this advantage if he successfully applies his wrestling and clinch strategy. The predicted outcome is a close decision in favor of Duncan.
Predicted Score: Christian Leroy Duncan wins via decision, 29-28