Match Analysis: Christian Leroy Duncan vs Eryk Anders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Game Overview
Christian Leroy Duncan, a younger and highly efficient striker with an 11-2 record, faces veteran Eryk Anders with a 17-8 record in a middleweight bout. Duncan’s reach advantage and higher striking accuracy position him as the strong favorite in this matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Duncan boasts a superior recent form and striking output, landing 4.75 significant strikes per minute at 59% accuracy versus Anders' 3.54 strikes at 48%. Duncan also defends slightly better allowing 3.01 strikes per minute compared to Anders' 4.05.
- No prior head-to-head matches between these opponents, making stylistic and statistical comparisons crucial.
- No known injuries reported for either fighter leading into the bout.
- Fight scheduled at UFC Apex, neutral ground with no home advantage. Duncan’s youth and physical dimensions (6'2" height and 79" reach) provide a natural edge against the older Anders (38 years old, 6'1", 75" reach).
- Duncan is driven to solidify himself as a rising contender, while Anders may rely on experience; age disparity favors Duncan’s motivation and physical peak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Duncan -550, Anders +410 | Christian Leroy Duncan | ★★★★☆ 82% |
| Spread | Duncan -3.5 (-205), Anders +3.5 (+150) | Christian Leroy Duncan -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-188), Under 2.5 (+145) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Christian Leroy Duncan -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 59% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Christian Leroy Duncan to win by decision
Predicted Score: Christian Leroy Duncan wins via unanimous decision after three rounds