Match Analysis: Tracy Cortez vs Erin Blanchfield – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City
Game Overview
UFC 322 features a highly anticipated rematch between flyweight contenders Tracy Cortez and Erin Blanchfield. This is a significant bout for both fighters as they compete on the same card as the co-main event featuring Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang, which increases the stakes for a potential title shot. Both fighters have evolved significantly since their previous Invicta encounter, making this rematch substantially different from their first meeting. The bout takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, where Cortez previously faced unfavorable crowd reception.
Key Factors to Consider
- Erin Blanchfield enters as the betting favorite (-258 moneyline odds), indicating sportsbooks assess her as the stronger competitor heading into this matchup. Tracy Cortez, listed at +210 odds, is positioned as the underdog despite her notable popularity and development as a fighter. Both competitors are operating at their natural flyweight division and are actively competing at the elite UFC level.
- This is a rematch of a previous Invicta bout where these fighters competed earlier in their careers. Both athletes have acknowledged significant evolution and improvements since that first encounter. Blanchfield has particularly developed her grappling, which Cortez identified as a key area to address. Cortez emphasized that the rematch will be fundamentally different from their previous meeting, suggesting she has made adjustments to counter Blanchfield's strengths.
- No specific injuries or health concerns are mentioned in available information regarding either fighter for this bout.
- The venue advantage is a significant consideration. This bout takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City. While Cortez expressed excitement about performing at MSG and expecting strong fan support due to her Hispanic heritage and popularity in the region, she previously faced unfavorable crowd reactions during an earlier MSG appearance against Molly McCann. The timing of both fighters competing on the same card as the co-main event suggests high visibility and potential consequences for the winner regarding title shot positioning.
- Both fighters view this rematch as a critical stepping stone toward a title shot. Blanchfield noted that fighting on the same timeline as the champion and on the same card makes the winner much closer to title contention. The rematch provides both competitors with an opportunity to settle the previous result and prove their development as fighters. Cortez stated she is focused on proving herself deserving of her position rather than proving others wrong, indicating internal motivation and confidence in her improvements.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Erin Blanchfield: -258 | Tracy Cortez: +210 | Erin Blanchfield Victory | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Erin Blanchfield: -3.5 (120) | Tracy Cortez: +3.5 (-165) | Erin Blanchfield -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-445) | Under 2.5 (310) | Under 2.5 Rounds | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Erin Blanchfield -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 138% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 138% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Erin Blanchfield is favored to win this rematch based on comprehensive odds analysis and her positioning as the betting favorite. The -258 moneyline reflects approximately 72% implied probability in her favor. However, this is a competitive matchup with Tracy Cortez presenting legitimate threats and having made notable improvements. The rematch nature of the bout and Cortez's familiarity with Blanchfield's style, combined with potential home crowd support at Madison Square Garden, creates a scenario where upset potential exists despite the mathematical preference for Blanchfield.
Predicted Score: The overwhelming over/under odds (-445 on Over 2.5 rounds) suggest bookmakers project a relatively quick finish. Predicted outcome: Erin Blanchfield wins via submission or knockout in Rounds 2-3, approximately 7-9 minutes into the bout. The heavy Under 2.5 rounds preference indicates expectations for a decisive performance by the favored fighter rather than an extended competitive bout reaching the championship rounds.