Match Analysis: Erik Badillo vs Gerardo Zapata – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-12
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Save Mart Arena, Fresno, California, USA
Game Overview
This WBC light flyweight title eliminator features unbeaten Erik Badillo (17-0, 8 KOs) facing Gerardo Zapata (15-2-1, 5 KOs). Badillo is the WBC #2 ranked contender and favored in the matchup, while Zapata is ranked #8. The bout is scheduled for 12 rounds with the winner becoming the mandatory challenger for the WBC light flyweight title.
Key Factors to Consider
- Badillo remains undefeated and has shown strong recent form with a high KO ratio (8 KOs in 17 fights). Zapata has two losses and one draw with fewer knockouts, indicating slightly less finishing power.
- No prior head-to-head matchups between Badillo and Zapata, making this a first-time encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- Fight location in Fresno, CA provides neutral ground without a strong hometown advantage; both fighters highly motivated given the title eliminator stakes.
- Both fighters highly motivated, but Badillo’s undefeated record and higher ranking suggest extra pressure and focus to maintain unbeaten status and secure a title shot.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Erik Badillo: -700, Gerardo Zapata: +450 | Erik Badillo | ★★★★☆ 82% |
| Spread | Badillo -1.5 rounds: -150, Zapata +1.5 rounds: +130 | Badillo -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 7.5 rounds: -110, Under 7.5 rounds: -110 | Under 7.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Erik Badillo -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Erik Badillo at -11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Erik Badillo to win on the moneyline given his undefeated status, higher WBC ranking, and superior recent performance.
Predicted Score: Badillo wins by unanimous decision or late-round stoppage around Round 10