Match Analysis: Baysangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-17
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago

Game Overview

Baysangur Susurkaev, a fast-rising undefeated prospect (9-0), makes a record-setting fast UFC debut just 4 days after winning his contract with a first-round knockout. Eric Nolan (8-3), the CFFC middleweight champion on a 4-fight winning streak with 3 consecutive KOs, moves up from welterweight to middleweight for his UFC debut. Both fighters show knockout power, but Susurkaev's speed, reach advantage, and frantic recent activity mark him as a heavy favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

• Susurkaev is undefeated with 8 of 9 wins by knockout, mostly early finishes. Nolan is hot with 4 straight wins including 3 knockouts and holds a title in Cage Fury Fighting Championships.
• No previous matchup between Susurkaev and Nolan; first meeting.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Susurkaev accepted the fight on just 4 days rest after Dana White’s Contender Series victory — fastest UFC debut turnaround in history — demonstrating high confidence and motivation. The fight takes place at UFC 319 in Chicago.
• Susurkaev highly motivated to prove himself on short notice in UFC, supported by Dana White’s praise. Nolan motivated by UFC debut and moving up weight class, which may affect performance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Susurkaev -1000, Nolan +675	Susurkaev	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Susurkaev -1.5	Susurkaev by more than 1.5 rounds (i.e., finishes early)	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 1.5 (+155), Under 1.5 (-195)	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Baysangur Susurkaev -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Baysangur Susurkaev to win by first-round knockout

Predicted Score: Susurkaev wins by first-round knockout