Match Analysis: Empoli vs Hellas Verona – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-25
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Carlo Castellani, Empoli, Italy
Game Overview
Empoli, positioned 18th in Serie A with 25 points, faces Hellas Verona, ranked 15th with 32 points, in a crucial late-season match at Empoli's home ground. Both teams have struggled, but Hellas Verona have a slight edge in form and overall points, making this match vital for Empoli's fight against relegation and Verona's push to secure a comfortable mid-table finish.
Key Factors to Consider
- Empoli have a poor record this season (4 wins, 13 draws, 17 losses) with defensive vulnerabilities and low goal output, while Hellas Verona hold a slightly better record (9 wins, 5 draws, 19 losses) and more consistent scoring from key forwards like Esposito and Colombo.
- The teams met once this season with mixed results. Historically, matches between Empoli and Hellas Verona tend to be tightly contested with a slight advantage to Verona in recent encounters.
- No detailed injury updates are available from current data, but given the late stage of the season, squad fatigue and minor injuries could impact player availability for both sides.
- The match is at Empoliβs home stadium, Carlo Castellani, which could give a minor advantage to Empoli. Weather and pitch conditions are presumed standard with no reports of adverse effects.
- Empoli are highly motivated to avoid relegation, which should make them competitive. Hellas Verona, relatively secure in mid-table, may approach the game with moderate intensity but aiming to capitalize on Empoliβs struggles.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Empoli: -105, Hellas Verona: 320, Draw: 230 | Empoli win | β β β ββ 55% |
| Spread | Empoli: -0.5 100, Hellas Verona: 50 -120 | Empoli -0.5 | β β β ββ 52% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: 108, Under 2.25: -128 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Empoli -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Empoliβs home advantage but poorer form and lower scoring capability against a more settled Verona side, an away victory or a closely fought draw is probable. The prediction leans toward a narrow Hellas Verona win or draw.
Predicted Score: 1-1