Match Analysis: Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-26
• Time: 6:30 PM UTC
• Location: Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

Game Overview

This is the decisive second leg of the Bundesliga relegation/promotion playoff between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim. The first leg ended 2-2 in Heidenheim, leaving the tie finely balanced. Heidenheim, despite a disappointing Bundesliga campaign, showed resilience to come from two goals down. Elversberg, the third-place team from Bundesliga 2, arrive with momentum after a strong season and an unbeaten run of eight matches prior to the first leg[1][2][5].

Key Factors to Consider

• Heidenheim struggled in the Bundesliga, finishing 16th, but demonstrated spirit in the playoff first leg. Elversberg was a surprise package in Bundesliga 2, finishing third after exceeding expectations all season[1][2][5].
• Limited historical data, but the first leg ended 2-2. Heidenheim took 14 shots in the second leg, indicating attacking intent, but both teams have shown they can threaten the opponent's goal[2][4].
• No major reported injuries from the last match data; both teams appeared at near full strength[2][3].
• Elversberg is a small club with modest infrastructure, but strong home support could play a psychological role. Heidenheim has recent Bundesliga experience but travels to a unique environment[5].
• Heidenheim are fighting for Bundesliga survival. Elversberg are chasing a historic first-ever promotion to the Bundesliga, providing extra motivation for the home side[5].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	1. FC Heidenheim: 215, Elversberg: 120, Draw: 235	Elversberg to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	1. FC Heidenheim: 25 -110, Elversberg: -0.25 -110	Elversberg -0.25 (win)	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over: 2.75 -118, Under: 2.75 -102	Over 2.75 goals	★★★☆☆ 57%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Elversberg -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.75 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Elversberg at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

A tense, closely contested match is expected. Elversberg, motivated by history and strong recent form, has a slight edge at home, but Heidenheim's experience and first-leg fightback suggest this could go to extra time or penalties. However, given the momentum and odds, Elversberg is favored to win in regular time.

Predicted Score: Elversberg 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim

Match Analysis: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Elversberg – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-22
• Time: 6:30 PM UTC
• Location: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz, Germany

Game Overview

The relegation-promotion playoff match in the German Bundesliga between 1. FC Heidenheim and Elversberg is scheduled for May 22, 2025, at the Voith-Arena. This crucial fixture will determine who either secures their place in or is promoted to the Bundesliga. Both teams have experienced inconsistent form, with Heidenheim struggling particularly at home and Elversberg showcasing resilience on the road.

Key Factors to Consider

• Heidenheim has struggled significantly at home this season, losing 12 of their 17 home matches and averaging just 0.76 goals per home game, indicating offensive difficulties. Conversely, Elversberg has remained unbeaten in 14 of their last 15 matches across all competitions and has been resilient away from home, drawing 3 of their last 6 away matches. Their recent form shows no losses in their last 8 consecutive games in all competitions.
• The last two matchups between these teams have been evenly contested, with 50% ending in draws. This suggests a balanced rivalry with neither side dominating historically.
• No significant injury data is available from current sources; thus, no major absences are expected to affect team selections.
• The match is taking place at Heidenheim’s home ground, which typically offers some advantage, though their poor home form could negate this. Weather conditions are mild, with temperatures around 69°F, unlikely to impact gameplay significantly.
• Both teams have strong motivation: Heidenheim is fighting to maintain Bundesliga status, while Elversberg aims to capitalize on their promotion campaign momentum, including a recent 2-1 victory over Schalke securing 3rd place in Bundesliga 2.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Heidenheim: 120, Elversberg: 205, Draw: 240	Heidenheim to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Heidenheim -0.25: -108, Elversberg +25: -112	Heidenheim -0.25	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -122, Under 2.5: 102	Under 2.5 goals	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	1. FC Heidenheim 80%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 31%

🔥 Best Value Pick: 1. FC Heidenheim at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given their strong recent form, unbeaten streak, and the poor home record of Heidenheim, Elversberg should be considered slight underdogs but with a credible chance to challenge. Nonetheless, Heidenheim’s home advantage and experience in the Bundesliga likely give them a narrow edge. A tight, low-scoring match is expected, with Heidenheim predicted to edge a 1-0 victory.

Predicted Score: 1-0