Match Analysis: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Elversberg – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-22
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz, Germany
Game Overview
The relegation-promotion playoff match in the German Bundesliga between 1. FC Heidenheim and Elversberg is scheduled for May 22, 2025, at the Voith-Arena. This crucial fixture will determine who either secures their place in or is promoted to the Bundesliga. Both teams have experienced inconsistent form, with Heidenheim struggling particularly at home and Elversberg showcasing resilience on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Heidenheim has struggled significantly at home this season, losing 12 of their 17 home matches and averaging just 0.76 goals per home game, indicating offensive difficulties. Conversely, Elversberg has remained unbeaten in 14 of their last 15 matches across all competitions and has been resilient away from home, drawing 3 of their last 6 away matches. Their recent form shows no losses in their last 8 consecutive games in all competitions.
- The last two matchups between these teams have been evenly contested, with 50% ending in draws. This suggests a balanced rivalry with neither side dominating historically.
- No significant injury data is available from current sources; thus, no major absences are expected to affect team selections.
- The match is taking place at Heidenheim’s home ground, which typically offers some advantage, though their poor home form could negate this. Weather conditions are mild, with temperatures around 69°F, unlikely to impact gameplay significantly.
- Both teams have strong motivation: Heidenheim is fighting to maintain Bundesliga status, while Elversberg aims to capitalize on their promotion campaign momentum, including a recent 2-1 victory over Schalke securing 3rd place in Bundesliga 2.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Heidenheim: 120, Elversberg: 205, Draw: 240 | Heidenheim to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Heidenheim -0.25: -108, Elversberg +25: -112 | Heidenheim -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -122, Under 2.5: 102 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | 1. FC Heidenheim 80% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 31% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: 1. FC Heidenheim at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given their strong recent form, unbeaten streak, and the poor home record of Heidenheim, Elversberg should be considered slight underdogs but with a credible chance to challenge. Nonetheless, Heidenheim’s home advantage and experience in the Bundesliga likely give them a narrow edge. A tight, low-scoring match is expected, with Heidenheim predicted to edge a 1-0 victory.
Predicted Score: 1-0