Match Analysis: Elton Armindo vs Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 21, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Cage Warriors 197, Manchester

Game Overview

Elton Armindo, a 23-year-old fighter with a 7-0 record, faces Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo, who holds a 7-1 record, in a featherweight bout at Cage Warriors 197. This is a short-notice matchup with Armindo moving up to featherweight for this competition. Mastrogiacomo enters as the favored fighter based on current betting odds, though Armindo's undefeated record and youth present intriguing contrarian value.

Key Factors to Consider

• Elton Armindo maintains a perfect 7-0 record with 4 KO/TKO wins, 0 submissions, and 3 decisions, demonstrating well-rounded striking capabilities. Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo counters with a 7-1 record featuring 3 KO/TKO wins, 2 submissions, and 2 decisions, indicating a more diverse offensive arsenal with grappling proficiency. Mastrogiacomo's submission wins represent a technical advantage in ground control.
• No previous matchup history exists between these fighters. This is their first encounter, eliminating historical data patterns that typically inform prediction confidence.
• No injury information is publicly available for either fighter at this time. Both competitors are listed as active and scheduled for competition.
• Armindo is moving up in weight class on short notice, which typically disadvantages the fighter making the jump. This weight class transition for Armindo could impact his strength advantage and cardio efficiency. The event is held at Cage Warriors 197 in Manchester, with the bout airing exclusively on UFC Fight Pass.
• Mastrogiacomo appears motivated to maintain his elite status and leverage his slight betting favorite positioning. Armindo has significant motivation to prove his undefeated record transcends weight classes and establish himself as a legitimate threat in the featherweight division despite limited preparation time.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Elton Armindo -135 | Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo -105	Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo Win	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo 15%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo is predicted to win this bout via decision or submission. His technical grappling advantage, prior fight experience at this weight class, and favorable odds positioning suggest a likely victory. However, Armindo's perfect record and knockout power create meaningful upset potential, particularly if he quickly establishes striking range before potential grappling exchanges.

Predicted Score: Mastrogiacomo 29-28 or submission win in Round 2. Alternative scenario: Armindo 30-27 by decision if he controls striking exchanges and avoids takedowns.

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – November 21, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Damion Nelson vs. Dakota Hope Prediction	Damion Nelson	-175	48%
Anthony Orozco vs. Evaldo Santos Prediction	Over 1.5	140	40%
Elton Armindo vs. Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo Prediction	Elton Armindo	-135	12%

Combined Odds: +557 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $131.3

Match Analysis: Shirzad Qadrian vs Elton Armindo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 7:00 AM UTC
• Location: Indigo at The O2, London, England

Game Overview

This is a highly anticipated Cage Warriors 196 bantamweight championship bout featuring Shirzad Qadrian, the division's heir apparent and #10 ranked contender, facing off against Elton Armindo, an undefeated newcomer at just 23 years of age. Qadrian, an elite grappler from Dagestan, is defending his long-awaited title opportunity after serving as the #1 contender for over a year. Armindo brings explosive striking and a perfect record, having made a violent impact on his CW debut with a stoppage victory over former title challenger Reece McEwan. This 5-round championship fight represents a clash between established championship pedigree and hungry, undefeated youth.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shirzad Qadrian holds an 8-1 professional record with 3 KO/TKO victories (33%), 2 submissions (22%), and 3 decisions (33%), demonstrating well-rounded striking and grappling capabilities. His sole loss came via decision. Elton Armindo enters undefeated at 7-0 with an impressive 57% KO/TKO rate (4 victories), 0 submissions, and 3 decisions (43%), showcasing devastating striking power. Armindo's win rate via knockout suggests superior striking output and finishing ability compared to Qadrian's more balanced approach.
• This is the first meeting between these fighters. No direct historical data exists, but their stylistic matchup presents a classic striking-versus-grappling dynamic. Qadrian's elite grappling credentials and submission expertise should theoretically neutralize Armindo's striking advantage if successfully implemented. However, Armindo's explosive power and recent impressive debut performance suggest he may possess the raw physicality to challenge even an experienced competitor.
• No injury information provided in available sources. Both fighters are confirmed healthy and competing in the championship bout.
• The fight takes place at London's Indigo at The O2, a familiar and prestigious venue for Cage Warriors. The championship-level pressure and stakes favor the more experienced Qadrian, who has endured a lengthy wait for this opportunity. Conversely, Armindo's youth, undefeated status, and reduced pressure as the underdog newcomer may provide psychological advantages in terms of freedom and fearlessness.
• Qadrian has explicitly stated this fight represents his legacy and championship aspirations after waiting over a year for the title opportunity. He is highly motivated to bring the championship belt to Dagestan. Armindo, as a rising contender seeking to establish himself at the elite level, is motivated to prove his championship credentials and upset the establishment. The motivation dynamics favor Qadrian's desperation after a lengthy wait versus Armindo's freedom as an underdog with something to prove.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Shirzad Qadrian: -190 | Elton Armindo: +145	Shirzad Qadrian wins	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shirzad Qadrian -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Shirzad Qadrian at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shirzad Qadrian is predicted to win this championship bout via submission or decision in the later rounds (rounds 3-5). His superior experience, elite grappling credentials, established championship pedigree, and motivated desperation after a year-long wait provide significant advantages over Armindo's raw power and undefeated status. While Armindo's striking explosiveness poses a first-round threat, Qadrian's technical grappling should dictate the fight's trajectory and secure victory through attrition and championship-level composure.

Predicted Score: Shirzad Qadrian 48-47 (3-2 rounds) or Submission Round 4