Ellie Scotney vs. Yamileth Mercado Prediction Boxing

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Match Analysis: Ellie Scotney vs Yamileth Mercado – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-11
  • Time: 1:04 AM UTC
  • Location: Madison Square Garden, New York

Game Overview

Ellie Scotney (10-0-0) faces Yamileth Mercado (24-3-0) in a unification fight at super bantamweight for multiple world titles. The bout is scheduled for 10 rounds with both fighters orthodox, same age (27), but Mercado brings significantly more experience and knockout power. Scotney is undefeated but the underdog in this highly competitive matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Scotney is undefeated with technical skill and has held multiple titles (IBF, IBO, WBO). Mercado has been a pro since 2014 with a strong record and WBC title, notable for KO power (21% KO rate vs Scotney's 0%). Both boxers have similar round experience (61), but Mercado has fought more pro fights (27 more).
  • No prior fights between Scotney and Mercado, making this their first head-to-head encounter. Both are elite champions meeting in a unification bout.
  • No reported injuries or concerns for either fighter leading into the bout.
  • Fight is on a high-profile card at Madison Square Garden, New York, with significant audience attention as part of a major female boxing event. No travel or environmental disadvantages evident.
  • Both fighters highly motivated with multiple titles on the line. Scotney aims to maintain perfect record and unify belts, Mercado looks to assert power and experience to claim undisputed status.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ellie Scotney: -1800, Yamileth Mercado: 800 Yamileth Mercado High

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ellie Scotney -92%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Despite Scotney's undefeated record and height advantage, Mercado's superior experience, knockout power, and championship pedigree provide her the edge. The odds (-1800 Scotney, +800 Mercado) undervalue Mercado's potential impact in the fight. The value lies in backing Mercado on the moneyline and considering total rounds over given the expected competitiveness and Mercado's ability to deliver stoppages.

Predicted Score: Mercado wins via late-round TKO or unanimous decision, 7-9 rounds


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