Match Analysis: Brando Pericic vs Elisha Ellison – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Game Overview
This UFC prelim heavyweight bout features Brando Peričić (4-1), a taller fighter with a 196 cm height and 1.96 m reach from USA, versus Elisha Ellison (5-1), a slightly smaller but aggressive Australian fighter, 180 cm tall with 1.8 m reach. Both are relatively inexperienced at the UFC level but known for finishing potential. Peričić has shown vulnerability when fights go beyond early rounds and is susceptible to takedown control. Ellison, fighting at home, is expected to leverage striking and potentially ground control for a finish.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both fighters have strong regional records with a majority wins by finish, but neither has extensive UFC experience. Peričić's lone loss was by submission after fading in later rounds. Ellison exhibits a balanced striking and ground game with momentum as the home favorite.
- No prior head-to-head matchups exist between these fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
- Fight takes place in Perth, Australia, giving Ellison home crowd support. The fight is a prelim bout on ESPN+.
- Ellison looks to capitalize on home advantage and continue rising UFC trajectory. Peričić aims to prove resilience and maintain rising status after a submission loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brando Pericic: -225, Elisha Ellison: 186 | Elisha Ellison | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over_1.5: 194, under_1.5: -235 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brando Pericic 98% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Brando Pericic at 98% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 52.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Elisha Ellison is predicted to win, likely via grappling and controlling Peričić after early exchanges, with a high probability of a finish in the later rounds. If Ellison does not secure an early knockout, his ground control should lead to a submission victory.
Predicted Score: Elisha Ellison wins by submission or TKO in Round 2