Match Analysis: Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-17
- Time: 9:10 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
The UFC Fight Night Strawweight bout between Denise Gomes and Elise Reed is a clash of styles: Gomes is known for her aggressive pace and Brazilian grit, while Reed is praised for her crisp technique and fluid movement. Gomes enters as a significant favorite, with odds reflecting her perceived dominance and momentum. The fight is part of a stacked preliminary card featuring rising prospects and veterans alike, guaranteeing fireworks for MMA fans.
Key Factors to Consider
- Denise Gomes is on a strong run, leveraging her aggressive pace and toughness, while Elise Reed, despite her technical proficiency, has shown vulnerability to takedowns in every UFC fight.
- No prior head-to-head history. This will be their first meeting in the Octagon.
- No significant injuries reported pre-fight.
- Gomes, fighting out of Brazil, benefits from a high-pressure, high-energy style that has overwhelmed opponents, while Reed, a U.S. athlete, faces questions about her takedown defense and ability to handle Gomes' aggression.
- Both fighters are motivated: Gomes to climb the rankings, Reed to prove her technical prowess and resilience.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denise Gomes: -600, Elise Reed: 440 | Denise Gomes to win | High (85%) |
| Spread | Denise Gomes: -3.5 -205, Elise Reed: 3.5 150 | Denise Gomes to cover the spread (-3.5) | High (80%) |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -188, Under: 2.5 145 | Under 2.5 rounds | Medium (60%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denise Gomes -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 47% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Denise Gomes is favored to win, likely by exploiting Reed's takedown defense and relentless pressure. The fight is expected to have significant action, potentially finishing before the final bell.
Predicted Score: Denise Gomes by TKO/KO or Submission (Round 2)