Match Analysis: Martin Bakole vs Efe Ajagba – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-03
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

Top 10 heavyweights Martin Bakole (22-1, 16 KOs) and Efe Ajagba (20-1, 14 KOs) clash in a high-stakes bout on the undercard of Canelo Alvarez vs. William Scull. Bakole seeks redemption after a devastating 2nd-round KO loss to Joseph Parker in February 2025, while Ajagba aims to cement elite status with a statement win.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bakole’s technical skills and resume (wins over Tony Yoka, Jared Anderson) contrast with Ajagba’s raw power. Bakole faces concerns about chin durability after recent KO loss, while Ajagba’s stamina in later rounds remains untested at elite level.
• First professional meeting between the fighters.
• Bakole’s potential lingering effects from 2nd-round KO loss to Parker 10 weeks prior; no reported injuries for Ajagba.
• Fight moved to Riyadh from New York to bolster Canelo undercard; Saudi event pressure may favor experienced Bakole.
• Bakole fights for career survival after recent setback; Ajagba seeks breakout win for title contention.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bakole -350 | Ajagba +260	Bakole	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (-105)	Over 7.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Martin Bakole -13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 7.5 4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 7.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Martin Bakole by mid-round TKO (7th-9th) if chin holds early. If Ajagba’s power connects early, upset KO possible. Technical edge favors Bakole unless KO trauma resurfaces.

Predicted Score: Bakole via TKO (Round 8)