Match Analysis: Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 11:10 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Middleweight MMA bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Dustin Stoltzfus as part of UFC Noche 3. Gastelum is the betting favorite with a strong striking profile and reach disadvantage, while Stoltzfus offers a longer reach and slightly better striking accuracy. Both athletes are same age, with Gastelum seeking to recover from recent losses and Stoltzfus aiming to regain momentum after a defeat.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kelvin Gastelum holds a 20-10 record with a tendency for high-volume striking but has had recent setbacks. Dustin Stoltzfus is 16-7, showing durable defense and decent striking accuracy but lacks consistent finishing power.
• No recorded previous head-to-head matchups between Gastelum and Stoltzfus, making stylistic analysis and recent form critical.
• No significant injuries publicly reported affecting either fighter going into the matchup.
• Fighting at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, an even venue without clear home advantage. Both fighters are familiar with competing in similar environments.
• Gastelum motivated to rebound from recent losses and maintain relevance in middleweight rankings. Stoltzfus aims to build momentum after a recent loss, making him a dangerous underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gastelum -250, Stoltzfus +205	Kelvin Gastelum	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Gastelum -3.5 -120, Stoltzfus +3.5 -110	Kelvin Gastelum -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -215, Under 2.5 +165	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kelvin Gastelum -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 59%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision

Predicted Score: Kelvin Gastelum wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – September 13, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Alice Pereira vs. Montserrat Rendon Prediction	Under 2.5	210	120%
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction	Under 2.5	165	59%
Arian Sadiković vs. Dawid Jarowienko Prediction			43%

Combined Odds: 100 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $0

Match Analysis: Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursultan Ruziboev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursultan Ruziboev are set to face off in a middleweight bout at UFC Vegas 106. Stoltzfus holds a 16-6-0 record, while Ruziboev boasts a 35-9-2 record (2 NC). The odds favor Ruziboev heavily, with a moneyline of -298 compared to Stoltzfus's +240.

Key Factors to Consider

• Stoltzfus lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy rate, while Ruziboev lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute with the same accuracy rate. Ruziboev has a slight edge in defense, absorbing 3.78 strikes per minute while defending 50% of shots, compared to Stoltzfus's 3.29 strikes absorbed with a 46% defense rate.
• There is no head-to-head data available for this matchup.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The bout is at neutral ground, UFC Apex, which may not provide a significant advantage to either fighter.
• Both fighters are motivated by the prospect of winning, but Ruziboev's recent form and experience may give him an edge in terms of confidence and strategy.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Stoltzfus: +240, Ruziboev: -298	Nursultan Ruziboev	High
Spread	Stoltzfus: 3.5 (+175), Ruziboev: -3.5 (-240)	Take Ruziboev -3.5, but with moderate confidence due to the spread.	Moderate
Over/under	over: 1.5 (-105), under: 1.5 (-125)	Over 1.5 rounds	High

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Nursultan Ruziboev -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nursultan Ruziboev is favored to win due to his experience and recent form.

Predicted Score: Nursultan Ruziboev win by decision