Match Analysis: Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursultan Ruziboev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-17
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Game Overview
Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursultan Ruziboev are set to face off in a middleweight bout at UFC Vegas 106. Stoltzfus holds a 16-6-0 record, while Ruziboev boasts a 35-9-2 record (2 NC). The odds favor Ruziboev heavily, with a moneyline of -298 compared to Stoltzfus's +240.
Key Factors to Consider
- Stoltzfus lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy rate, while Ruziboev lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute with the same accuracy rate. Ruziboev has a slight edge in defense, absorbing 3.78 strikes per minute while defending 50% of shots, compared to Stoltzfus's 3.29 strikes absorbed with a 46% defense rate.
- There is no head-to-head data available for this matchup.
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- The bout is at neutral ground, UFC Apex, which may not provide a significant advantage to either fighter.
- Both fighters are motivated by the prospect of winning, but Ruziboev's recent form and experience may give him an edge in terms of confidence and strategy.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stoltzfus: +240, Ruziboev: -298 | Nursultan Ruziboev | High |
| Spread | Stoltzfus: 3.5 (+175), Ruziboev: -3.5 (-240) | Take Ruziboev -3.5, but with moderate confidence due to the spread. | Moderate |
| Over/under | over: 1.5 (-105), under: 1.5 (-125) | Over 1.5 rounds | High |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nursultan Ruziboev -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nursultan Ruziboev is favored to win due to his experience and recent form.
Predicted Score: Nursultan Ruziboev win by decision