Match Analysis: Dustin Poirier vs Max Holloway – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-20
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Game Overview
This highly anticipated third meeting between Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway heads the UFC 318 main event, featuring the BMF title on the line. Poirier is set to retire after this bout, adding finality and heightened stakes to his performance. Holloway seeks redemption to avenge his previous losses against Poirier and defend his belt.
Key Factors to Consider
- Poirier is coming off a submission loss to Islam Makhachev but holds a strong legacy and motivation to retire as BMF champion. Holloway suffered a knockout loss to Ilia Topuiria recently but boasts an active 22-8 UFC record with aggressive striking and volume.
- Poirier holds a 2-0 advantage in their head-to-head history, including early career bouts where he won by submission and decision. Holloway aims to reverse this but has yet to secure a win against Poirier.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter that could impact performance notably at fight time.
- The bout location favors Poirier slightly due to his fanbase, and the retirement narrative adds pressure and edge to his preparation. Holloway's public declarations of a historic fight indicate strong motivation.
- Poirier’s motivation to retire on a high with the BMF title favors him psychologically. Holloway is motivated to prove himself and redeem past losses but faces added pressure to defend his legacy.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dustin Poirier: +124, Max Holloway: -148 | Max Holloway | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Poirier +5.5 -195, Holloway -5.5 +140 | Max Holloway -5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 4.5 rounds -160, Under 4.5 rounds +124 | Under 4.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Max Holloway -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 4.5 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 4.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Max Holloway to win by decision
Predicted Score: Max Holloway wins via unanimous decision after 5 rounds