Match Analysis: Dustin Jacoby vs Bruno Lopes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-31
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, 6650 El Camino Rd, Las Vegas, NV 89118
Game Overview
Dustin Jacoby faces Bruno Lopes in a light heavyweight bout on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The fight is scheduled for May 31, 2025, with the expected walkout time around 2:10 AM UTC. Both fighters bring contrasting levels of activity and experience, with Jacoby being slightly more active recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dustin Jacoby has fought more frequently over the past two years, averaging a fight every 5 months and 1 day, accumulating 11 rounds in his last 5 bouts with an average fight duration of 2.2 rounds. Bruno Lopes, meanwhile, has been less active, fighting every 6 months and 10 days on average, totaling 10 rounds in his last 5 fights with an average fight length of 2 rounds.
- There is no record of previous head-to-head matchups between Dustin Jacoby and Bruno Lopes, making this their first encounter competitively.
- No publicly available data indicates recent injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout.
- The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for both fighters with no significant external conditions expected to impact the fight. The main card placement suggests a high-stakes environment that may affect fighter motivation and performance.
- Dustin Jacoby's higher activity level and experience on the UFC main card may offer him psychological and competitive advantages. Bruno Lopes may be motivated to upset a more experienced opponent and improve his standing in the light heavyweight division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dustin Jacoby: -192, Bruno Lopes: 148 | Dustin Jacoby to win | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Jacoby -1.5 rounds (-110), Lopes +1.5 rounds (-110) | Jacoby to cover the spread (-1.5 rounds) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds (-120), Under 2.5 rounds (+100) | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dustin Jacoby -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Dustin Jacoby at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dustin Jacoby is favored to win due to his recent activity, experience, and slightly better odds. Jacoby’s fighting style and recent form suggest he could secure a win either by striking or late stoppage, though Lopes' resilience and skill set could challenge him.
Predicted Score: Dustin Jacoby wins by decision or late round TKO, fight expected to last approximately 3 rounds.