Match Analysis: Jose Daniel Medina vs Dusko Todorovic – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Game Overview
Middleweight UFC matchup between Jose Daniel Medina and Dusko Todorovic featuring contrasting striking volume and accuracy, with Todorovic favored by sportsbooks due to his higher significant strike rate and defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dusko Todorovic has a record of 12-6 with a high output of 4.79 significant strikes per minute landing at 57% accuracy, while Medina is 11-5 with 2.18 significant strikes per minute at 36% accuracy; Todorovic's superior striking volume and defense advantage imply better recent form.
- No direct head-to-head matchups recorded between these two fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both appear physically prepared.
- Fight takes place at a neutral venue in San Antonio, no notable external factors affecting either fighter.
- Both fighters motivated to improve UFC rankings; Todorovic looking to capitalize on momentum with more finishes, Medina aiming to prove himself as an underdog.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +270, away: -340 | Dusko Todorovic | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | DuskoTodrovic: -5.5 @ -120, JoseMedina: +5.5 @ -110 | Dusko Todorovic -5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over: 1.5 @ -250, under: 1.5 @ 190 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dusko Todorovic -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 -13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Dusko Todorovic at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dusko Todorovic to win by moneyline
Predicted Score: Dusko Todorovic wins by decision or late finish, likely after Round 2