Match Analysis: Jose Daniel Medina vs Dusko Todorovic – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Game Overview
The MMA middleweight prelims bout between Jose Daniel Medina and Dusko Todorovic at Noche UFC features two fighters with contrasting styles and records. Medina, with an 11-5 record, is a Bolivian fighter known for durability but limited recent finishes. Todorovic, a Serbian fighter standing slightly taller with similar reach, carries recent momentum with striking power as reflected in an August 2024 KO win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dusko Todorovic has demonstrated superior striking volume and power, landing more significant strikes per recent fights and securing a notable TKO knee finish recently. Medina's fights show fewer strikes and primarily decision outcomes, indicating a possibly more tactical but less explosive style.
- This is a first-time matchup; no direct fights or historical head-to-head data exist between the two competitors.
- No publicly available recent injury reports or fight withdrawals for either fighter, suggesting both enter the bout healthy.
- Fighting on prelims at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio at a UFC event provides a neutral venue without significant hometown advantage. Both fighters are motivated to advance their UFC careers with a win on this card.
- Todorovic may have slightly higher motivation to capitalize on recent finishing momentum. Medina aims to rebound from recent knockout defeats, seeking a tactical victory.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dusko Todorovic: -340, Jose Daniel Medina: 270 | Dusko Todorovic | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Dusko Todorovic: -5.5 -120, Jose Daniel Medina: +5.5 -110 | Dusko Todorovic -5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -250, Under 1.5 rounds: 190 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dusko Todorovic -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dusko Todorovic is favored to win by a decision or late finish based on superior recent striking and finishing ability, with Medina likely to use a tactical approach to survive and potentially drag the fight to decision.
Predicted Score: Dusko Todorovic wins via decision or late round TKO after more than 1.5 rounds