Match Analysis: Kyle Prepolec vs Drew Dober – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC
Game Overview
The UFC Fight Night bout between Drew Dober and Kyle Prepolec is a lightweight matchup featuring two 36-year-old southpaws with equal wingspan (70"). Dober is the heavy favorite due to his higher striking volume, accuracy, and durability.
Key Factors to Consider
- Drew Dober has a career record of 27-15-0 with a higher strike output (4.36 significant strikes per min) and better defense (51%) compared to Kyle Prepolec's 18-9-0 record, lower strike output (2.87 per min), and 49% defense. Recently, Dober's power and pace have allowed him to consistently pressure opponents effectively.
- No recorded prior head-to-head fights between Dober and Prepolec.
- No notable reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight takes place at a major UFC event in Vancouver, providing a neutral site with no significant travel disadvantage. Both fighters are the same age, minimizing age-related effects.
- Dober, as the betting favorite and more established lightweight contender, is highly motivated to maintain momentum and climb rankings. Prepolec is motivated to upset the odds and elevate his standing but enters as the underdog.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Drew Dober: -440, Kyle Prepolec: +340 | Drew Dober | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Drew Dober -3.5: -230, Kyle Prepolec +3.5: +165 | Drew Dober -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -188, Under 1.5 rounds: +145 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Drew Dober -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Drew Dober to win via decision
Predicted Score: Drew Dober wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds