Match Analysis: Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: United Center, Chicago
Game Overview
Edson Barboza faces Drakkar Klose in a UFC lightweight bout on August 16, 2025. Barboza is a veteran with a career record of 24-12-0 and a reach advantage, while Klose holds a 15-3-1 record and slightly higher significant strikes landed per minute.
Key Factors to Consider
- Barboza is known for his striking volume and accuracy, landing 4.11 significant strikes per minute with a 44% connect rate, but absorbs more strikes (4.65 per minute). Klose lands slightly more strikes per minute (4.33) with a higher accuracy (55%) and better defensive metrics against strikes allowed (3.54 per minute). Recent form favors Barboza’s experience and finishing ability.
- No previous head-to-head bouts exist between Barboza and Klose, making this a fresh tactical matchup.
- No recent injuries reported for either fighter, both expected to be in full health for this bout.
- Barboza fights in Chicago, granting a possible minor home crowd advantage. No other significant external factors noted.
- Barboza aims to add a win late in his career reinforcing his legacy, while Klose seeks to establish himself amongst top contenders making this a high-motivation contest on both sides.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Barboza -135 / Klose +115 | Barboza | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Barboza -1.5 rounds (approx. -120) | Barboza -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-162) / Under 2.5 (+132) | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Edson Barboza 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 44% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Barboza win; Spread: Barboza by decision (-1.5 rounds); Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds
Predicted Score: Barboza wins by unanimous decision, 3 rounds to 0