Match Analysis: Donte Johnson vs Sedriques Dumas – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 9:20 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
Donte Johnson and Sedriques Dumas face off in a middleweight MMA bout at UFC Vegas 110. Johnson is undefeated with a 6-0 record, fighting southpaw at 5'8", while Dumas is an experienced 10-3 fighter, orthodox stance, standing 6'2". Johnson relies on a volume striking approach, landing 71% of his significant strikes at 14.06 per minute, whereas Dumas lands only 44% at 2.12 per minute but boasts a higher strike defense of 56% compared to Johnson's 50%.
Key Factors to Consider
- Johnson has superior striking output and accuracy, landing 14.06 significant strikes per minute at 71% accuracy, compared to Dumas' 2.12 strikes per minute at 44% accuracy. Defense statistics favor Dumas slightly with 56% strike defense vs Johnson's 50%, and Dumas concedes fewer significant strikes per minute (2.50) than Johnson (8.44). Johnson's undefeated record indicates momentum and confidence advantage.
- No previous matchup or direct historical fights exist between Donte Johnson and Sedriques Dumas.
- No reported injuries affecting either fighter for this bout at the time of analysis.
- Dumas stepped in as a late replacement for Nick Klein, potentially impacting preparation time and strategy. The fight takes place at UFC Apex, a neutral venue with no home advantage for either fighter.
- Johnson is a recent DWCS (Dana White's Contender Series) contract winner, likely highly motivated to maintain his undefeated streak. Dumas, with a more extensive career but some recent setbacks, may be motivated to reassert himself in the middleweight division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Donte Johnson: -355, Sedriques Dumas: 280 | Donte Johnson | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Donte Johnson: -3.5 at -320, Sedriques Dumas: +3.5 at 225 | Donte Johnson by more than 3.5 points | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: 170, Under 1.5 rounds: -220 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Donte Johnson -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 62% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 62% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Donte Johnson is favored to win due to his higher striking volume, accuracy, and undefeated status, but Dumas' size advantage and defensive skills suggest the fight may be competitive. Expect Johnson to capitalize on striking dominance to secure a decision or late stoppage win.
Predicted Score: Donte Johnson wins by decision or TKO in round 3 or 4