Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs Dolphins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-14
- Time: 9:35 AM UTC
- Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Game Overview
NRL Round 15 clash between the North Queensland Cowboys (6th) and Dolphins (7th), both in the hunt for the top eight. Cowboys come off a loss to Melbourne Storm with several Origin players absent, while Dolphins are high on confidence after a big win over the Dragons, but missing key attacking weapon Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to State of Origin duties. Both teams are in good recent home/away form against each other, and the game is expected to be closely contested with a tendency towards high scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dolphins have won 6 of their last 9 games, including a 56-6 thrashing of the Dragons last week. Cowboys have struggled recently, winning only 1 of their last 5. Both teams have high scoring games recently: Over 49.5 points in 5 of Dolphins' last 7 and 5 of Cowboys' last 6. Dolphins have covered the line in 5 of 6 wins (–5.5), whereas Cowboys have failed to cover the +5.5 line in 5 of 6 losses.
- Dolphins have won both previous meetings at this venue. Recent encounters are split: Cowboys big win in Round 1 2024, Dolphins won 28-26 at the same venue later that year.
- Cowboys missing Tom Dearden, Reuben Cotter, Reece Robson, Jeremiah Nanai due to State of Origin. Dolphins missing Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow for the same reason. Cowboys return Taulagi and Taumalolo for this match.
- Dolphins riding a wave of confidence; Cowboys looking to bounce back at home but missing key playmakers. Prop Jordan McLean to make his 150th appearance for Cowboys. Dolphins winger Jamayne Isaako has scored 8 tries in last 4 games vs Cowboys; Cowboys centre Zac Laybutt has scored 4 tries in 2 games vs Dolphins.
- Both teams highly motivated to secure top-eight spots with several teams chasing them. Dolphins look to continue winning momentum; Cowboys aim to rebound and harness home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dolphins: -186, North Queensland Cowboys: 158, Draw: 2100 | Dolphins | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Dolphins: -4.5 -120, North Queensland Cowboys: +4.5 -110 | Dolphins (-4.5) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 48.5 -145, Under: 48.5 110 | Over (48.5) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dolphins -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 48.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dolphins have the better recent form and momentum, with strong attacking stats and defensive frailties from the Cowboys making them favorites despite being away. Expect a high-scoring game with the Dolphins likely to cover the spread. Cowboys' home advantage is significant, but missing key players tilts the balance towards the visitors.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 30 – North Queensland Cowboys 22