Match Analysis: Djorden Santos vs Danny Barlow – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Center, Vancouver, Canada
Game Overview
This UFC prelim middleweight bout features Danny Barlow (9-1 professional record) versus Djorden Santos (10-2 professional record). Barlow has UFC experience with a 2-1 UFC record, showing a strong striking ability and resilience. Santos, younger and a bit taller with slightly less reach, has a record including 0-1 in UFC prelims, showing potential but lacking top-level UFC success. Both fighters have balanced records in KO/TKO and submission wins. The fight promises a striking battle with contrasting styles—Barlow’s measured counter-striking versus Santos' aggressive forward pressure.
Key Factors to Consider
- Barlow is the more experienced UFC fighter, demonstrating superior striking speed, power, and countering skills. Santos tends to be aggressive but leaves openings for counters, which Barlow is expected to exploit. Barlow’s record includes more KO/TKO wins suggesting higher finishing rate. Both fighters have good grappling but neither dominates clearly on the ground.
- No previous head-to-head fights between Barlow and Santos. Past performances indicate Barlow has edged stronger opponents in UFC prelims, while Santos lost his UFC debut by decision, fading in later rounds.
- No significant injury reports for either fighter leading up to the match, indicating both are expected to enter at full fitness.
- The fight is held in Vancouver, Canada—neutral ground for both. No notable environmental or travel disadvantages. Fan momentum slightly favors Barlow due to his striking style and recent UFC performances.
- Barlow likely motivated to rebound strongly after his only loss and prove finishing ability with power and speed. Santos aims to secure first UFC win, which may push aggressive but risky strategy.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Danny Barlow: -290, Djorden Santos: 235 | Danny Barlow | ★★★★☆ 82% |
| Spread | Danny Barlow: -3.5 -195, Djorden Santos: +3.5 140 | Danny Barlow -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: 120, Under 2.5: -154 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Danny Barlow 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Danny Barlow at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Danny Barlow is favored to win due to his superior striking skill set, countering ability, and finishing power. His defensive skills against aggressive fighters like Santos should yield a win by KO/TKO or decision.
Predicted Score: Danny Barlow wins by KO/TKO in Round 2