Match Analysis: Uran Satybaldiev vs Diyar Nurgozhay – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 7:00 AM UTC
• Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Xuhui District, Shanghai, China

Game Overview

Light heavyweight MMA bout between Uran Satybaldiev and Diyar Nurgozhay on UFC Fight Night preliminary card. Satybaldiev is a favorite for his striking and takedown defense, while Nurgozhay poses a threat with perfect takedown accuracy and a strong finishing rate.

Key Factors to Consider

• Satybaldiev comes in with superior recent form, showing consistent control and defense, whereas Nurgozhay has high finishing capability but is less consistent against strong strikers.
• No prior head-to-head fights available, requiring reliance on stylistic matchup and past performances.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight taking place at a neutral site; both fighters are from Central Asia, minimizing travel disadvantage. Early morning time may slightly favor the more disciplined and conditioned athlete, Satybaldiev.
• Both fighters are motivated to establish dominance early on UFC Fight Night prelim card, but Satybaldiev's role as a favorite adds pressure and incentive to maintain form.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Uran Satybaldiev: -156, Diyar Nurgozhay: +136	Uran Satybaldiev	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	-163 for Uran Satybaldiev -1.5 rounds	Uran Satybaldiev -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -115	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Uran Satybaldiev -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Uran Satybaldiev to win by decision

Predicted Score: Uran Satybaldiev wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Brendson Ribeiro vs Diyar Nurgozhay – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 15, 2025
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

This matchup pits undefeated Diyar Nurgozhay against seasoned veteran Brendson Ribeiro in a light heavyweight bout. Nurgozhay's undefeated record and strong striking skills face off against Ribeiro's grappling prowess and reach advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Diyar Nurgozhay is undefeated with a strong striking record, while Brendson Ribeiro has a more mixed record but significant grappling skills.
• This is their first meeting, with no previous head-to-head data.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex, a familiar venue for both fighters, with no significant external factors affecting the bout.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Nurgozhay looking to maintain his undefeated streak and Ribeiro seeking an upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Brendson Ribeiro: +295, Diyar Nurgozhay: -375	Diyar Nurgozhay	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Brendson Ribeiro: +3.5 165, Diyar Nurgozhay: -3.5 -225	Diyar Nurgozhay	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -154, Under 1.5: 120	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Diyar Nurgozhay is favored to win due to his undefeated record and strong striking skills.

Predicted Score: Diyar Nurgozhay wins by decision or late-round stoppage.