Match Analysis: Uran Satybaldiev vs Diyar Nurgozhay – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 7:00 AM UTC
• Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Xuhui District, Shanghai, China

Game Overview

This light heavyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang features Uran Satybaldiev, a methodical striker with perfect takedown defense, against Diyar Nurgozhay, a high-finishing Kazakh fighter with 100% takedown accuracy. Satybaldiev enters as the favorite due to his control and defense, while Nurgozhay poses an early-round finishing threat.

Key Factors to Consider

• Uran Satybaldiev has shown patient striking and strong takedown defense, controlling pace effectively in prior fights. Diyar Nurgozhay is aggressive with high finishing rates and reliable takedown success, making him dangerous early on.
• No recorded direct matchups found between Uran Satybaldiev and Diyar Nurgozhay, making this their first competitive encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter heading into the bout, both are expected to be at full strength.
• Fight is held at a neutral venue in Shanghai, with no home advantage. Both fighters come from Central Asia, likely accustomed to traveling and international competition.
• Both fighters show high motivation to ascend the light heavyweight rankings, with Satybaldiev aiming to confirm his favorite status and Nurgozhay eager to secure a notable upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Uran Satybaldiev: -156, Diyar Nurgozhay: 136	Uran Satybaldiev	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Uran Satybaldiev: -1.5 rounds, Diyar Nurgozhay: +1.5 rounds	Uran Satybaldiev -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_2.5 rounds: -115, under_2.5 rounds: -115	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Uran Satybaldiev 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Uran Satybaldiev is predicted to win due to superior takedown defense and fight control, although Nurgozhay's finishing ability suggests a potential early upset if he capitalizes quickly.

Predicted Score: Uran Satybaldiev wins by decision or late round TKO within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Brendson Ribeiro vs Diyar Nurgozhay – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 15, 2025
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

This matchup pits undefeated Diyar Nurgozhay against seasoned veteran Brendson Ribeiro in a light heavyweight bout. Nurgozhay's undefeated record and strong striking skills face off against Ribeiro's grappling prowess and reach advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Diyar Nurgozhay is undefeated with a strong striking record, while Brendson Ribeiro has a more mixed record but significant grappling skills.
• This is their first meeting, with no previous head-to-head data.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex, a familiar venue for both fighters, with no significant external factors affecting the bout.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Nurgozhay looking to maintain his undefeated streak and Ribeiro seeking an upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Brendson Ribeiro: +295, Diyar Nurgozhay: -375	Diyar Nurgozhay	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Brendson Ribeiro: +3.5 165, Diyar Nurgozhay: -3.5 -225	Diyar Nurgozhay	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -154, Under 1.5: 120	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Diyar Nurgozhay is favored to win due to his undefeated record and strong striking skills.

Predicted Score: Diyar Nurgozhay wins by decision or late-round stoppage.