Match Analysis: Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 10:15 PM UTC
- Location: United Center, Chicago
Game Overview
The upcoming UFC 319 Flyweight bout features Brazilian fighters Karine Silva and Dione Barbosa. It is scheduled for three 5-minute rounds. Both fighters have a competitive record in the Flyweight division with Silva holding an 18-5 overall record and Barbosa 8-3. This fight is significant as it showcases top Brazilian talent in a highly competitive weight class.
Key Factors to Consider
- Karine Silva has a stronger overall record (18-5) with a more diverse finish distribution including 5 KOs and 8 submissions. Dione Barbosa holds an 8-3 record and relies more on submissions. Silva is slightly younger (31 vs. 33 years) with marginally shorter reach and height but more experience inside the UFC with a 4-1 UFC record compared to Barbosa's 2-1 UFC record.
- No previous head-to-head matches between Karine Silva and Dione Barbosa have been recorded, making this their first encounter.
- No current injuries reported for either fighter as of the latest information prior to the fight.
- The fight venue is the United Center in Chicago, with the bout taking place on a Saturday at 22:15 UTC. No significant external distractions or conditions are noted affecting either fighter.
- Both fighters are motivated to ascend the Flyweight rankings with Silva attempting to solidify her UFC status following a strong 4-1 UFC record, and Barbosa aiming to improve her UFC standing after a decent 2-1 UFC record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Karine Silva: -205, Dione Barbosa: 175 | Karine Silva win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Not officially offered with standard UFC betting; implied spread favors Karine Silva with approximately -1.5 round advantage | Karine Silva to win by 2 or more rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -245, Under 2.5 rounds: 195 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Karine Silva -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 92% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 92% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Karine Silva is favored to win due to her higher experience level, superior record, and finishing ability, especially on the ground. The prediction is a win by submission or decision for Silva within 3 rounds.
Predicted Score: Karine Silva wins by submission in Round 2