Match Analysis: Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 10:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC 319 Event Venue (not specified)

Game Overview

This is a women's flyweight bout between Karine Silva and Dione Barbosa at UFC 319. Both fighters have grappling strengths with competitive striking. Barbosa won their previous 2019 meeting by unanimous decision, but Silva is currently favored.

Key Factors to Consider

• Karine Silva has shown more recent activity and form, entering as a slight favorite with odds around -205 to -220. Barbosa is less active and accepted the fight on short notice, which can impact conditioning and preparation.
• Barbosa has a 2019 victory over Silva via unanimous decision, indicating competitive parity and knowledge of each other's styles.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter, but Barbosa's short notice acceptance may imply less preparation time.
• The fight takes place at UFC 319, a high-profile event likely motivating both fighters. Barbosa's underdog status (+175 to +195) might provide additional incentive.
• Barbosa is motivated as the underdog looking to upset a favored Silva, who seeks to validate her position as favorite and avenge a previous loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Karine Silva: -205, Dione Barbosa: +175	Karine Silva	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Karine Silva -1.5 rounds: N/A, Dione Barbosa +1.5 rounds: N/A	Karine Silva to win outright (since spread bets not available)	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -245, Under 2.5: +195	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Karine Silva -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 83%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Karine Silva win; Spread: Silva to win by decision (assuming a 3-round fight, spread -1.5 rounds is not offered, so prediction focuses on moneyline); Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Karine Silva wins by decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Dione Barbosa vs Diana Belbita – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-05
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena (UFC Vegas)

Game Overview

This matchup features Dione Barbosa, a grappler with judo background, facing Diana Belbita, who has transformed into a more strategic fighter. Barbosa’s strong grappling skills and Belbita’s vulnerabilities on the ground highlight Barbosa’s potential advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dione Barbosa has a strong grappling history but lacks quick finishes, while Diana Belbita has shown strategic improvement despite struggles on the ground.
• There is no previous matchup between the two fighters.
• Recent information does not indicate any significant injuries affecting either fighter.
• Barbosa’s experience in grappling could be influential, while Belbita’s ability to adapt and finish fights might be key.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, given their career stages and recent performances.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Barbosa: -1000, Belbita: 650	Barbosa	★★★★☆ 80%
Spread	Barbosa: -7.5 (-195), Belbita: 7.5 (145)	Barbosa covers	★★☆☆☆ 40%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 (100), Under: 2.5 (-130)	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Dione Barbosa is likely to win via first-round submission.

Predicted Score: Barbosa wins via submission in round 1